MARK O’HAIRE (@MarkOHaire) heads to Serie A as he picks out his favourite bet from the continent this weekend.
Frosinone v Atalanta | Saturday 17.00 | BT Sport 1
Did you know, Serie A has seen just nine 0-0 draws from the first 200 matches this season? In contrast, the Premier League has delivered 23 from 220 – that’s 6% more goalless games.
Italy’s top tier has reinvented itself across the past few seasons with a new breed of young, ambitious and highly intelligent coaches looking to implement a more attack-minded style. In turn, it’s led to more goal-heavy games.
Luckily for us, the bookmakers have been slow to pick up on the new high-scoring ways of Serie A and that means there’s plenty of opportunity for us punters to grab value prices with Frosinone’s encounter with Atalanta on Saturday night a great example.
Newly-promoted Frosinone have picked up just a solitary point from their last 18 on offer and it’s not hard to see where their problems lie. The Canaries have shipped 19 goals in their most recent five outings, at least twice in each of their last 10 and four or more goals in six of those 10.
Roberto Stellone’s side are now six points from safety and can’t afford to drop any more points. The head coach is expected to revert to a 4-4-2 formation as the hosts hope to enhance a record that’s seen 13 of their 15 points picked up at their Stadio Matusa home.
But it’s goals I’m after and it’s hard to turn down 15/16 from Marathon on Over 2.5 Goals this weekend. It’s proven profitable in 10 of Frosinone’s last 11 matches with both teams scoring in nine of those fixtures.
Only Roma and Chievo have stopped the hosts scoring since promotion and the Canaries’ 10 home outings have already featured a league-high 35 goals.
Atalanta switched to a 3-5-1-1 approach against Inter Milan last weekend to grab their first point in five games. Boss Edy Reja may adopt a similar stance here but even so, I find it hard to imagine this contest won’t produce goals.
The Bergamo boys have seen our selection cop in six of their last nine visits to promoted clubs and so I’ll confidently count on a repeat as they lock horns with Serie A’s great entertainers.
Frosinone v Atalanta – Over 2.5 Goals (15/16 Marathon)
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