MARK O’HAIRE (@MarkOHaire) shares his view on the best bet from the continent this weekend.
Augsburg v Stuttgart | Saturday 14.30
It’s been an agonising couple of weeks for the European NAP but I’m going back-to-basics with a stats-based bet from the Bundesliga on Saturday.
Augsburg head into this relegation six-pointer three points worse off than their visitors, though last Saturday's come-from-behind 2-1 win at Werder Bremen – courtesy of goals from Alfred Finnbogason and Jeong-Ho Hong – saw the Bavarians pull out of the relegation zone at Bremen’s expense.
Markus Weinzierl’s men have been poor performers at their WWK Arena home (W2-D5-L7) and last weekend’s triumph was just their second three-pointer in 2016 having ended a run of six matches without a success.
Stuttgart have a five-point cushion on the drop zone following last week's 3-1 loss at league leaders Bayern Munich. Despite putting in a spirited performance against the champions, doubts are creeping into Stuttgart's play, with the Swabians taking just two points from their last four games (W0-D2-L2).
For the first time since Jurgen Kramny was appointed as coach in December, VFB have failed to record a maximum in four fixtures and having taken 17 points from the 44-year-old’s first eight Bundesliga games, Stuttgart have accumulated just six in their most recent eight outings.
Impressively, no top-tier team are averaging more on-target attempts than Stuttgart on their travels but Die Roten also boast the league’s worst defence. Marry the two records together and it’s no surprise to hear goals tend to be on the agenda when the Swabians are on show.
Stuttgart have shipped at least two goals in six of their last seven games and with Serie Die out, the visitors don’t have their superb defensive midfield shield to call upon. Without a shutout in eight and having conceded goals in all bar one of their 14 road trips this term, the likelihood of VFB keeping their sheets clean is slim.
However, Kramny’s charges have seen Both Teams To Score bank in 11/14 (79%) of their away trips with a huge 17 of their past 19 on their travels featuring at least three goals. Taking this season in isolation, Stuttgart have seen 11/14 games as guests deliver Over 3.5 Goals winners.
Augsburg have notched in each of their last 10 Bundesliga battles but the Fuggerstädter have been breached in 11/14 (79%) of their home encounters, leading to 8/14 (57%) successful BTTS bets when hosting league action.
The Bavarians have seen Over 2.5 Goals collect in seven games on the spin now, in 8/14 (57%) at the WWK Arena in 2015/16 with six of their most recent 11 excursions on home soil breaking the Over 3.5 Goals barrier.
With Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals too skinny to support, marry the two markets together and we can back Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score at 8/11 with Bet365 – it’s a selection that’s proven profitable in 8/14 (57%) of Augsburg’s home outings and 10/14 (71%) of Stuttgart’s road trips.
If we put the two teams’ home/away records in this market together and found the average, we’d be looking at just over a 64% chance of a repeat. That probability implies odds of just 4/7, making the 8/11 a big value goals bet.
Augsburg v Stuttgart – Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score (8/11 Bet365)
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