European NAP | 15th October 2016


MARK O’HAIRE (@MarkOHaire) continues his hunt for the continent's best bet with his European NAP. Can he continue his run of four winners on the spin with a selection from Serie A on Saturday?

Napoli v Roma | Saturday 14.00

It’s a little frustrating to see the weekend Serie A highlight scheduled for 2pm on a Saturday afternoon and whilst Napoli and Roma have produced six successive Under 2.5 Goals winners when going head-to-head, it’s almost impossible not to back a goal-heavy game here.

Last season, Napoli and Roma were the top two scorers in Serie A and whilst the hosts have lost Gonzalo Higuain’s replacement – Arkadiusz Milik – to a long-term cruciate ligament injury, there are still plenty of goals in the Partenopei squad.

Milik struck seven times in nine games across all competitions but Jose Callejon has already notched five league goals this term and Manolo Gabbiadini has the quality to hurt Italy’s meanest defences if given the confidence and platform to perform in the central striking role.

The hosts were in fine form before travelling to Bergamo and losing 1-0 to Atalanta before the international break so I’d expect a response from Napoli here. The Partenopei have W19-D3-L0 in home Serie A outings since the start of last season and won their last nine in that sample.

Maurizio Sarri’s men have scored at least twice in 18 of those 22 encounters but they’ll have to be at their best to stop a sharp-shooting Roma squad from joining in the goalmouth action on Saturday afternoon.

The Giallorossi have lost just twice in 24 Serie A matches but both arrived on the road this season (W0-D1-L2). Nevertheless, goals continue to flow with a huge 18 of the Wolves’ past 22 league dates breaking the Over 2.5 Goals barrier.

Since Luciano Spalletti arrived at the capital club, Roma have been involved in 19/26 (73%) games to feature at least three goals with 15/26 (58%) going on to produce four or more goals.

On their travels, the Giallorossi have seen nine of their last 10 prove profitable in the Over 2.5 Goals market with eight rewarding Over 3.5 Goals backers whilst the visitors have netted at least twice in eight of their most recent 10.

Collectively the pair have produced 30/44 (68%) successful Over 2.5 Goals bets in their respective home/away games since the start of last season and 29/44 (66%) winners for Both Teams To Score hunters.

Taking the above paragraph further, the duo have scored in 39/44 (89%) of that sample and kept only 12/44 (27%) clean sheets. With overwhelming trends in our favour, I’m backing Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score at 20/23 (Coral).

Best Bets

Napoli v Roma – Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score (20/23 Coral)

About Author

The big cheese at WLB. After starting his career in newspaper journalism, Mark soon found his way into the online betting world, forging a career in content, social media and marketing production before setting WeLoveBetting up soon after the 2014 World Cup. With a huge passion for stats, analytics, the EFL and European football, Mark’s other interests include playing rugby, following his beloved QPR and travel.

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