ENGLAND take on Germany at Wembley in the last-16 on Tuesday. James Cantrill (@JimmyThePunt) shares his thoughts on the fixture.
England vs Germany | Tuesday 29th June 2020, 17:00 | BBC
I am trying not to get carried away but looking at this objectively, with the Netherlands knocked out, the winner of this fixture should be in the final and with the world champions crashing out, the winner of this fixture could win the tournament. Can England do what they failed to do at the Old Wembley a quarter of a century ago?
The first angle I like for this fixture is Both Teams To Score at odds of 13/14 with SBK. Although I am not holding my breath, I really hope Gareth Southgate takes the handbrake off for this one and really goes after this suspect German backline.
Joachim Löw’s side have already shipped five goals this summer – two of which game against Hungary – and this lack of clean sheets is nothing new. Including their three Euro 2020 games, Die Mannschaft have only kept three clean sheets from their last 17 fixtures as the likes of Latvia, North Macedonia and Northern Ireland have managed to score against them.
Whilst they are vulnerable defensively, their attacking pedigree cannot be questioned. Since the World Cup, they have played 32 games, only failing to score in three fixtures; twice vs France and once against Spain.
Sticking along similar lines I also like the 1-1 correct score at 31/5 with SBK. In the 2018 World Cup, England drew two of their three knockout games by exactly this scoreline (against Columbia and Croatia) which I think epitomises Southgate’s approach to these fixtures perfectly.
The final bet I like for this game is the game to be settled with penalties at 5/1 with Sky Bet. For the reasons outlined above, I do not think there will be anything to separate these two nations at the end of the 90 and extra time will be a cagey affair. Therefore, although none of us want to see it, I think this one will end with spot kicks…