ENGLAND host Denmark on Wednesday. Jack Wright (@JackWright_BSB ) is on-hand to preview the match-up .
England vs Denmark | Wednesday 14th October 2020, 19:45 | Sky Sports
In the aftermath of defeating Belgium on Sunday, the reaction to England’s performance has been decidedly underwhelming, verging on the negative.
Despite having a borderline offside decision go in their favour, equalising after being awarded a soft penalty and scoring the winner by way of a big looping deflection it was still a win against the world’s number one ranked team, a victory which means they have the chance of making it three from three this international break on Wednesday.
Denmark will be no push overs however, coming in to this one on the back of two wins to nil, scoring seven goals in the process in games on home soil against Faroe Islands and away to Iceland – another triumph here for the Danes will put them level on points with their hosts.
Much of the attention leading up to this one has been around which players will feature, with a club versus country battle brewing over England captain Harry Kane’s involvement due to muscle fatigue, the fact Gareth Southgate has rejected Jose Mourinho’s request for his star man to be withdrawn from the squad would suggest Kane will play at least some part at Wembley.
There will definitely be change at left back with Kieran Trippier unavailable, a plethora of options at centre back, potential rotation in the middle and opportunities to return the likes of Jadon Sancho to add some creativity and dynamism.
For the visitors you would expect a freshening up of the starting XI to accommodate the expected deficit in possession however the only two players to have started both those aforementioned games this week are key men Martin Braithwaite and Christian Eriksen – both are all but guaranteed to make it three starts out of three.
Both sides come into this game in very solid form and built upon tight defensive records. The Three Lions have lost just once in their last eight outings on home soil against teams in UEFA Nations League (UNL) League A (W4-D3-L1) and are aiming for a 10th successive home victory since that one reversal at the hands of Spain just over two years ago.
Southgate’s men have not conceded a goal from open play since a 2-1 defeat in the Czech Republic in the penultimate game of qualification for the upcoming European Championships with Romelu Lukaku’s penalty at the weekend ending a run of six consecutive clean sheets.
Denmark’s record against UNL League A sides is comparable losing just one of their last 10 (W3-D6-L1) and in their last 12 games overall have conceded just five goals, keeping eight clean sheets, shipping more than once only in that solitary defeat – a 2-0 loss at home to Belgium.
The betting angles
If further evidence were needed that this has the makings of a close game, the recently played reverse fixture ended goalless with a grand total of three shots on-target – 2-1 in Denmark’s favour. Under 2.5 Goals looks a solid play and I was surprised to see it available at 10/11 with Bet365.
One thing noticeable despite the lack of goalmouth action in the Copenhagen fixture was the fairly consistent flow of corners, 10 in total with England winning that battle 6-4 – that’s a count they have won in each of their last seven home games (F 44-A20) – odds of 2/5 for them to make it eight are far too short.
Seeing double figure corners is no anomaly to Denmark with nine of their last 11 matches managing to cross the line of 10 or more and winning their fair share along the way, in fact only twice did their opponents take more flag kicks than Kasper Hjulmand’s men.
With England being one of them I am not going to take Denmark +2 on the Asian Corner Handicap although it was tempting at 19/20 with Bet365. as was the visitors taking four or more at 1/1 with Sky Bet.
However, I feel the best line of attack here is to keep it simple and have both sides helping to contribute in crossing the over nine total corners at 13/8 with Bet365. This line is odds-on elsewhere – but a reminder, if you are using a different firm ensure you are backing Over 9, Over 9.5 or 10+ – the same bet worded differently!
Finally, I was going into the player prop market for my final bet with a line that looked incredible on Harry Maguire – in brief it was for the Manchester United man to make 65+ Passes at odds of 21/20 – unfortunately the line moved massively whilst writing this.
Maguire made 85 passes against Belgium with England only seeing 47% of the ball – in the away fixture against Denmark which he missed, England had 54% possession with Eric Dier making 93 passes as the main centre back. If the line returns it is a definite play.
So instead I am going to play a bigger price selection to add some spice to our viewing and I’m sticking with both a corner theme and that man Maguire. Although old Slab Head didn’t test the keeper in the victory over Belgium from his three league appearances for the Red Devils this season, he has managed a header at goal in two of them.
If we are expecting to see England swing in six or more corners that’s a minimum of six opportunities for Maguire to try and add to his goal tally for his country and in a potentially tight encounter a set-piece could make all the difference. So therefore, I am taking a chance on Maguire to score a header at odds of 16/1 with Unibet.