IT’S time for the Bundesliga promotion/relegation play-off. Who’ll take first leg honours on Thursday night according to Tom Loveys (@ValueBetMethods).
Eintracht Frankfurt v Nurnberg | Thursday 19.30 | BT Sport Europe
For Bundesliga fans, although not necessarily fans of the clubs concerned, this is an exciting finale to the season, with a two-legged affair deciding if Eintracht Frankfurt remain in the top flight – or their position is taken by Nurnberg, who finished third in the 2.Bundesliga.
As I’ve found over the last few weeks, the Bundesliga at this time of the season has been dreadfully difficult to find a winner – and I have no doubt that this game will be the same. It’s tricky to know what angle to take, with all sorts of imponderables in front of us.
It’s a two-legged game, it pitches sides in two different divisions together – and both sides have obviously had contrasting fortunes in their campaigns this year.
Eintracht ended up in this situation after losing 1-0 away at Werder Bremen, and whilst they’ve only won six games at home this year, they have actually won three out of the last four in front of their fans, beating Hannover, Mainz and most impressively, Dortmund.
At a touch of odds against (19/20 888) though, it’s difficult to suggest the hosts as a bet with so much action in front of us.
Nurnberg finished third in 2BL, two points behind RB Leipzig and a full 12 points ahead of fourth-placed St Pauli.
Rene Weiler’s side are spearheaded by Guido Burgstaller and Niclas Fullkrug who have 13 and 14 goals this season respectively and look set to cause Eintracht’s defence some problems.
‘Der Club’ are no strangers to the top flight, only being relegated in 2013/14 and hoping to return at the second time of asking.
With so much to play for, a cagey first leg could be likely, where a draw wouldn’t be the end of the world for either team. The last five years of this first leg play-off have seen two home wins, two draws and one away win with the last five meetings of the two in Frankfurt seeing just the one home win, three draws and a Nurnberg victory back in 2008.
Looking at the odds, Nurnberg +0.5 Asian Handicap at 49/50 (BetVictor) looks tempting, which means we win should the away side avoid defeat on Thursday. Buoyed by a strong season, they will of course fancy their chances at a side who have lost 16 of their 34 matches this season.
I’m hoping Burgstaller and Fullkrug cause problems and give Nurnberg something to take back for the second leg, played next Monday.
Eintracht Frankfurt v Nurnberg – Nurnberg +0.50 Asian Handicap (49/50 BetVictor)