Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) takes a lot at tonight's apparent mismatch between Premier League champions Man City and League One Burton Albion.
Manchester City v Burton | Wednesday 9th January 2019, 19:45 | Sky Sports
A League Cup Semi-Final between Premier League Champions Manchester City and League One Burton seems like a complete mismatch and it’s hard to make a case for Nigel Clough’s side returning home with anything but their tails between their legs. This is a huge occasion for the side from the East Midlands but it’s really difficult to see them keeping this one competitive.
City are a best price of 1/25 to win the tie and you can actually get odds against on Burton to lose by three goals or fewer. Burton +3.5 at 51/50 with Bet365 actually seems fair to me, but given that City put seven past Championship Rotherham on Sunday, I don’t think it would make for a fun watch.
In encounters like this, where the gulf between the sides is so great, I would rather bet smaller stakes on a long shot than risk putting more money on something around the Evens mark.
My vote therefore goes to City 4-0, available at 6/1 with Coral and 4-1 which is 19/1 with BetVictor. City have looked better defensively this season, but with John Stones and Nicolas Otamendi likely to be at the back, I think Burton are capable of creating one clear chance. 3-1 is a very common method of victory under Pepe Guardiola, but factoring in the quality of opposition, I think I will chance that extra goal.
Elsewhere, it might be worth looking for the price of Ilkay Gundogan to score anytime once the lineups are announced. The German scored roughly one goal every five games for City and is currently a best price of 3/1.
However, you may get 4s and above on Betfair in the lead up to kick off and given that City are expected to score over three goals, I think that may be also worth a small play.