Accrington vs Ipswich | Saturday 2nd October 2021, 15:00
The Tractor boys look to have finally clicked and I don’t think there will be too many games where we will see their odds at this level going forwards, so I am happy to take these odds here.
Lots have been written about Ipswich since the new investment came into the Suffolk club and with 19 new signings maybe it was over optimistic that they would hit the ground running and win the league at a canter.
They failed to win in their opening six games, but at times were a little unlucky. A shocking miss at Cheltenham, an individual error at home to MK Dons and a penalty miss at Burton just some of the examples of lady luck playing her part, there was also the shocking display at home to Bolton where they lost 5-2.
Yet, that game seemed to be the change. They then went to Lincoln and grinded out a 1-0 win, they were the better side against Sheffield Wednesday, winning the xG 1.14 vs 0.35 before smashing Doncaster 6-0.
The back four looks more settled with Janoi Donacien came in at right back with George Edmundson and Cameron Burgess settling down to play together at centre back. In front them Sam Morsy purred in his league debut midweek having been previously suspended since his move from Middlesbrough.
Going forward Macauley Bonne leads the line and has seven goals from nine starts with the support of Scott Fraser, Bersant Celina, Wes Burn, who now has three assists and one goal from his six games, and they welcome back Kyle Edwards this weekend. Players like Joe Piggott, Conor Chaplin, Louie Barry, James Norwood, Rekeem Harper and Tom Carroll either on the bench or missing out.
Since the side settled down, they have conceded one goal in their last three games with xGA of 0.08, 0.35 and 0.29.
Accrington started the season well with wins over Doncaster, Crewe and Shrewsbury but are now on a run of just one win in their last six games whilst they have conceded 14 goals in their last four games.
Stanley have collected 13 points from sides 11th and below but against sides 10th and above its W0-D0-L5. I am aware that Ipswich are in the bottom half, but I don’t think any one seriously believes they will end the season there.
Both managers will set their teams up to attack and if its because a direct shoot-out between the two sides then Ipswich have the quality to outscore most sides. Ipswich have scored 18 goals in nine games averaging two goals a game and against a side gives up the 4th most shots in the box on target the Ipswich attacking players will cause issues.
If we are a little too early in backing Ipswich then we can get then on the 0.0AH at a price of 19/25 with Marathon Bet, which seems a very attractive price. If the game ends as a draw, we will get our stake back.
Doncaster vs MK Dons | Saturday 2nd October 2021, 15:00
You have to feel sorry for the Doncaster fans that made the long trip to Ipswich midweek to see their side lose by six goals and manager Richie Wellens has come out in the press and said the players would refund the ticket price for those who made the trip, although what happens if they get hammered again on Saturday at home to MK in front of their own supporters, which could well happen!
The visitors look in excellent form. Their underlying away metrics are impressive. 1.56 xG, the highest in the league then top of shots taken, shots on target, shots in the box and then 2nd for shots in the box on target plus no side has scored more away goals than them. The side has quality all over the pitch with Scott Twine, Mohamed Eisa, Troy Parrott, Max Watters and Harry Darling.
I was a little concerned with Russell Martin left the club just before the season started and Liam Manning was appointed, but if anything, this has helped the side. They look a real attacking force in the division.
On the road they have scored 3,2,1 and 4 and have conceded in them all, keeping just three clean sheets on season but scoring in every game. They have scored 1.5+in six of their 10 games with Sunderland, Wycombe, Portsmouth and Cheltenham restricting them to just one goal.
The Dons generated a xG of 1.76 against Cheltenham, 2.11 vs Portsmouth and 1.84 against Wycombe with only Sunderland really keeping them out with a xG of 1.2, although they did still managed 16 shots and six on target.
Can we really see Doncaster keeping them out here?
Rovers are very poor. Just 0.54xG at home and 1.6 xGA – the 2nd worst in the division. Going forward its horrendous with them sat in 24th place for almost every metric. Defensively its not quite so alarming. They are conceding just 0.67 goals per game, but they have played Morecambe, Wimbledon and Portsmouth coming out with a record of W1-D1-L1. However, MK Dons will be a step up from these sides.
Whilst they have faced some of the better sides away from home, they have conceded two or more against the likes Wigan, Plymouth, Rotherham and Sheffield Utd plus six at Ipswich.
Donny will look to keep things tight but as soon as they concede then they will have to come out of their shells, and I fear they will be picked off. Confidence must be low with conceding two late goals at Plymouth and then six at Ipswich.
Wellens pretty much offered to resign after the hammering by Ipswich, which doesn’t bode well and often when we see a manager get to this moment there is little turning back.
I am keen to get MK Dons onside here and given the hosts defensive issues and the attacking quality of the visitors I am going to back MK to score two or more goals at 4/5 with Betvictor.
Fleetwood vs Charlton | Saturday 2nd October 2021, 15:00
Another game from League One and another game where I think we will see goals. Fleetwood games this season have seen an average goals of 3.56 per game and at home 3.33 whilst the Addicks have an average of 2.75 per game.
The hosts have been exciting to watch this season with six of the eight games seeing both teams to score and the same number going over 2.5 match goals. At home they have beaten Cheltenham 3-2, drawn 2-2 with Sunderland and then lost 1-0 to Portsmouth, but they generated a xG of 1.06 with 12 shots and four on target and the visitors hung onto their lead.
Sunderland sit top of the table at the moment, but Fleetwood were worthy of their point winning the xG 1.8 vs 1.54. Simon Grayson is a manager that knows how to get the best out of his players and has an unfancied group playing well and entertaining.
Gerard Garner now has four goals in eight games and then Callum Camps, Paddy Lane and Harrison Biggins playing well. There is some experience in the squad with players like Joe Garner, Anthony Pilkington and Danny Andrew and so far, it’s coming off for Grayson.
The hosts are 6th for shots on target and 7th for shots on target in the box so they like to get forward and take the game to their opponents and in Charlton they face a team that are struggling for clean sheets with just two this season, both at home against Sheff Wednesday on the opening weekend and then against Crewe, which means just one clean sheet in nine games.
I am surprised by the start that Charlton have made as they ended the season well and have enough good players that would suggest they won’t be too long near the foot of the table. Conor Washington, Jayden Stockley, Ben Watson, Charlie Kirk, Harry Arter and Jonathan Leko should at some point click for manager Nigel Adkins.
Scoring hasn’t really been the issue with them scoring in eight of their 10 games, failing to find the net against Sheffield Wednesday and Wigan, but they have kept just two clean sheets conceding two or more in seven. They sit in the top seven worst sides for non-penalty xGA and shots in the box conceded which would suggest that they are struggling to keep the ball out of the goal.
Neither side can really defend, and Charlton are in desperate need of a win as they pressure slowly starts to increase on Adkins.
Over 2.5 goals have landed in five of seven home and away games for these two sides this season which would suggest a probability of 71% or odds of 9/22, yet the odds we can take of over 2.5 goals is 11/10 which is 47% chance.
Over 2.5 goals at 11/10 looks a bit of value to me.