Dortmund v Tottenham: Late drama forecast in Germany

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THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE Last 16 continues on Tuesday evening. We asked Tom Love (@TomLove_18) to source the best bets from Tottenham's trip to Dortmund. 

Dortmund v Tottenham | Tuesday 5th March 2019, 20:00 | BT Sport

Tottenham travel to Germany on Tuesday with a 3-0 advantage as they hope to progress to the Champions League quarter-finals.

Since that strong home victory in the first leg, Spurs have failed to win – losing at Burnley and Chelsea, and they were lucky to get a point against Arsenal last time out. They’ve been nowhere near their best from a creative point of view and it could be a lack of squad depth catching up on them.

Tottenham are as short as 1/33 to secure qualification and with that hefty buffer it would be a major shock if they didn’t. However, the Signal Iduna Park is an intimidating place for opposition teams. The famous Yellow Wall will be roaring on the hosts and an early goal could put the visitors on the ropes.

BVB have to come out an implement their dominance early, you’d think, and that takes me to my first pick which is Over 4.5 First-Half Corners at 1.750 with Bet365. The reason this is priced up as a decimal is because it’s under the ‘Asian corners’ tab and Asian markets are priced in that way. It’s a 3/4 shot in old money.

I’d expect the forward-thinking Raphael Guerreiro to come back into left back and Abdou Diallo to shift over to centre-half. Achraf Hakimi at right back is also an attacking player and they’ll be charged with making the pitch as big as possibe in order to create space. Their extra threat out wide could mean plenty more corners.

In games where there has to be a gung-ho attitude for a side from the get-go, the pressure tends to be high. Dortmund will likely pin Spurs in and it could be a tactic purposefully employed by Mauricio Pochettino because Dortmund prefer playing teams who are more open and leave space in behind.

Dortmund out of form

We’ve talked about Spurs being out of form but the same can be said of Dortmund with Bayern Munich level on points with them after just one win in their last seven. If you delve into the data,

BVB haven’t topped the tree on the underlying performance metrics all season, they’ve just been decisive and clinical without creating a barrage of chances, their xG for is at 1.70 whereas their actual output sees them scoring 2.40 goals per-game on an average in the Bundesliga. All things considered, this slowdown was forecasted if performances were anything to go by.

From a betting perspective, these second legs mean one team has to attack at some point. Therefore, I like to look at the time of Last Goal market. Betway go 10/11 for the final goal to be from the 76th minute to full-time and that makes appeal. If Dortmund are pushing in the last 15 then they will either commit a lot of players forward to their benefit or they will leave spaces up the pitch for Spurs to exploit.

Heung Min-Son has a terrific record against Dortmund and he scored again in the reverse leg. He will be a key out ball on the break for Spurs here with his pace and dribbling. With the hosts’ propensity to give up chances but Spurs not requiring a result as such, the 5/2 (Betfair) on a home win with both sides scoring also looks an attractive angle.

Best Bets

Dortmund v Tottenham – Over 4.5 first-half corners (3/4 Bet365)

Dortmund v Tottenham – Last goal to be scored in 76th minute – Full-Time (10/11 Betway)

Dortmund v Tottenham – Dortmund to win and Both Teams To Score (5/2 Betfair)

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