Darts: Best bets from Week 4 of the Premier League


DARTS expert expert Kyle Brown (@Kyleianbrown) talks us through the fourth week of Premier League action, picking out his favourite fancies.

Week 4 – Thursday 28th February 2019 | Exeter

*Predicted winners in bold, neither indicates draw.

The Week 4 Betting Angle

Gerwyn Price and Luke Humphries will kick-off week 4 in Exeter but unfortunately for the neutral, I don’t see any sort of upset happening.

“Gerwyn Price is a sure thing to win” is a phrase that was foreign in 2018’s Premier League, but this year he is a completely new player. Unbeaten from his opening three against James Wade, Raymond van Barneveld and Daryl Gurney, the “Iceman” has also won his previous 14 completive matches, taking down both the fifth and sixth instalments of the PDC Players championship.

Overall, Price has W19-D1-L1 of his last 21 matches. Luke Humphries had a good outing in the World Championship and is certainly a player to keep your eye on, but unfortunately for the world number 56 he is coming up against Price in the form of his life.

The 3/1 (SkyBet) on Price in the match treble – to win, to land most 180’s and produce the highest checkout is a great angle to exploit.

Both Michaels will get the business done

“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results”. On the contrary to that quote, I just have to recommend backing Michael Smith to win, even though I said the same thing through the first three weeks.

Yes, he is bottom of the table. Yes, he is only averaging 95.34 and 38.1% on double. But he is also the previous years’ runner up in both the Premier League and World Championship – being pipped byMichael van Gerwen on both occasions. And while his numbers are poor, Barney’s are poorer, only averaging 91.86 with three darts and 33.33% on the doubles.

The pressure is on Smith to get back to winning ways but I expect him to succeed – he's even-money to clear a -2.5 handicap with Betfair.

Another player I see taking maximum points from Exeter is, unsurprisingly, van Gerwen. MvG is a perfect three from three so far, while his counterpart James Wade has W1-D1-L1 this season, winning and losing 17 legs a piece.

While the majority of the league could have one of the most even playing fields since its inception, MvG is a cut above the rest, with his +11 leg differential blowing away his nearest challenger: Gerwyn Price with +3.

MvG didn’t compete in the week between Premier League matches so should hopefully be fresher and sharper. Wade, taking part in the fifth PDC Players Championship of 2019, did make the quarter-finals, but it’s worth noting he did not face any Premier League players before being bested by Dave Chisnall.

I'll therefore taking MVG in a double alongside Smith at 6/5 (Betfair).

Best Bets

Luke Humphries v Gerwyn Price – Gerwyn Price match treble – win, most 180’s and highest checkout (3/1 Sky Bet)

Michael Smith v Raymon van Barneveld – Michael Smith -2.5 handicap (1/1 Betfair)

Michael Smith and Michael van Gerwen double (6/5 Betfair)

About Author

As a journalism student consumed by sports on a daily basis, being paid to write about them would be the dream upon graduating (assuming I don’t get scouted last minute to play for Barcelona). I’m Scottish born and proudly support the national team, as well as Chelsea and the Chicago Bears. My family are all massive Rangers fans - regardless of what division they wake up in. I’ve started using statistics and data to make selections, rather than my gut. American Football is what I specialise in, and thankfully for me, it is a massively data-driven sport. Everything from pass completion to weather forecasts are taken into account. My love for numbers comes from my interest in poker. I play regularly online and at casinos, and every decision made requires thought into percentages and odds. Although there is an element of luck, it showed me that grasping an understanding of mathematics could prove to be very profitable.

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