DARTS expert expert Kyle Brown (@Kyleianbrown) talks us through the 13th week of Premier League action, picking out his favourite fancies.
Week 14 – Thursday 9th May 2019 | Sheffield | Sky Sports
- Michael Smith (2/1 Coral) v James Wade (1/1 Bet365)
- Mensur Suljovic (12/5 Betfair) v Rob Cross (10/11 Boylesports)
- Daryl Gurney (7/5 Betfair) v Gerwyn Price (6/4 BetVictor)
- Michael van Gerwen (3/10 Paddy Power) v Peter Wright (13/2 Unibet)
*Predicted winners in bold, neither indicates draw.
The Week 14 Betting Angles
Through the first nine weeks of the season, I sounded like a broken record as each preview would include some sort of bet backing Raymond van Barneveld’s opponent. With Barney gone, “Bully Boy” Michael Smith has taken his place, as he has mentally checked out of this years Premier League.
Smith was demolished by (now) league leader, Rob Cross, and he is coming up against an opponent in Sheffield who is playing almost as consistently – James Wade.
Wade, who had a comprehensive win last week against Gerwyn Price, finds himself third in the league and with a chance at finishing top – providing the table toppers drop points – but first he must take care of the opponent in front of him.
Wade has lost just three times year, whereas Smith has only won three of his 14 matches. Stats-wise, Wade comes out on top in just about every relevant factor barring the number of 180’s hit. But like I said last week when Smith was bested by Cross, those big scores mean nothing if you can’t close out the leg on a double – which has been Smith’s achilles heel.
Wade will be looking over his shoulder as it’s tightly packed in the race for the play-off spots, so he will know a win tonight is essential, and winning well would be a bonus, given the fact that leg difference could decide the final league order. I have confidence that Wade will win, best priced at even-money on Bet365, and -2.5 legs at 7/4 or -3.5 at 11/4 also take my fancy.
Cross too good to ignore
Elsewhere on the night, league leader Rob Cross takes on the Austrian, Mensur Suljovic, both of whom have something to play for. Cross finds himself top of the Premier League with just two matches remaining, a relative shock considering he was tied-4th favourite before Week 1.
Cross plays Suljovic this week and James Wade next, and it’s imperative he wins both as you can never safely bet against the current champion, Michael van Gerwen, to drop points. Mensur will have other ideas however, as he looks to cement his place in the play-off spots before a final week showdown with the aforementioned MvG.
Cross is best priced at 10/11 on Boylesports, and as per usual, I think this is too good value to pass up on.
He’s won 64% of his matches this season, and has a higher average (100.00 – 95.53), more 180’s (44 – 37) and a higher average checkout (108.50 – 88.64) than his Austrian counterpart. Cross’ 102.54 3-dart average last week is nothing to be sniffed at either.
In short, Cross is priced around even money because Suljovic has the incentive of potentially securing a spot in the finals should he win and other results go his way, but the stats and form point to a 10th win of the campaign for “Voltage”.
Lastly, another bet I’ve enjoyed backing recently is for a match to feature 2 or more 100+ checkouts, on SkyBet’s Request-a-Bet. This week I like it in the final match-up, between Michael van Gerwen and Peter Wright, priced at 4/5.
With Wright likely up against an angry MvG this week, he won’t find himself with much breathing space in any of his legs on throw, and will likely be in the position of having to checkout 3 digit figures to prevent a break. He’s certainly more than capable, hitting 100+ in three of his last four matches (130, 124 and 106).
His opponent, Michael van Gerwen, is averaging a high checkout of 100.57 over the course of the 14 weeks so far. All going to plan, they should both be able to hit a tonne plus finish on more than one occasion, settling the bet as an easy winner.
James Wade v Michael Smith – James Wade to win (1/1 Bet365)
Mensur Suljovic v Rob Cross – Rob Cross to win (10/11 BoyleSports)
Michael van Gerwen v Peter Wright – 2 or more 100+ checkouts (4/5 SkyBet)