Darts: Best bets from Week 12 of the Premier League


DARTS expert expert Kyle Brown (@Kyleianbrown) talks us through the 12th week of Premier League action, picking out his favourite fancies.

Week 12 – Thursday 25th April 2019 | Birmingham

*Predicted winners in bold, neither indicates draw.

The Week 12 Betting Angles

Birmingham kicks off with Mensur Suljovic looking to move back into the play-off spots, taking on bottom dweller Michael Smith – a sentence I did not anticipate writing at the start of the season.

While it is mathematically possible for Smith to still make the final four, it would take nothing short of a miracle, and he’ll have his work cut out against the Austrian, who keeps finding ways to win matches when perhaps the stats suggest he shouldn’t – only Michael van Gerwen  and Rob Cross have won more games this campaign (eight).

Smith comes into the match as favourite, which may seem harsh on Suljovic, so it hints at some value to back the (apparent) upset. Suljovic is 6/4 best price, at Coral.

Elsewhere, a price simply too good to turn down can be found in Sky’s Request-a-Bet Specials – the match to feature 2 or more 100+ checkouts is at 8/11.

While it wont win you a fortune, it’s as close to a banker as you’ll find this week. Suljovic isn’t known for his roof-raising finishes, but he is more than capable of hitting at least one or two 100+ a session. Smith hit a 170 last week and averages a high checkout of 101.75 through 12 weeks of playing.

Over 14 legs I could see four, possibly five checkouts hitting three-figures.

MvG looks unbeatable

Van Gerwen dispatched table-topper Rob Cross with ease in Cardiff last week, and now finds himself back where he’ll say he belongs – first. He’s now won 14 of his last 16 games and won the German Darts Gran Prix over the weekend. He is in red-hot form and Wade will do well to stop him.

I see nothing other than a win for the Dutchman – meaning no disrespect to James Wade – and at 4/9 on Coral, MvG is a nice price to add to an accumulator.

You can also get him at a 9/4 Price Boost on Sky Bet to hit the match treble, a price too good for me to turn down. Van Gerwen has hit more 180’s than his opponents during six of the 12 matches this year and hit a higher checkout in seven of those 12.

Those stats may not seem fantastic, but it does include his mid-season blip (blip by his standards, anyway) but there is nothing to suggest he will be short of his best tomorrow in Birmingham.

Best Bets

Mensur Suljovic v Michael Smith – Mensur Suljovic to win (6/4 Coral)

Mensur Suljovic v Michael Smith – Match to feature 2 or more 100+ checkouts (8/11 SkyBet)

James Wade v Michael van Gerwen – Michale van Gerwen match treble (9/4 SkyBet)

About Author

As a journalism student consumed by sports on a daily basis, being paid to write about them would be the dream upon graduating (assuming I don’t get scouted last minute to play for Barcelona). I’m Scottish born and proudly support the national team, as well as Chelsea and the Chicago Bears. My family are all massive Rangers fans - regardless of what division they wake up in. I’ve started using statistics and data to make selections, rather than my gut. American Football is what I specialise in, and thankfully for me, it is a massively data-driven sport. Everything from pass completion to weather forecasts are taken into account. My love for numbers comes from my interest in poker. I play regularly online and at casinos, and every decision made requires thought into percentages and odds. Although there is an element of luck, it showed me that grasping an understanding of mathematics could prove to be very profitable.

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