Czech Republic vs Denmark | Saturday 3rd July 2021, 17:00 | ITV
The Czech Republic bout with Denmark in Baku with a spot in the semi-finals up for grabs.
The Czechs shocked the continent as they beat the heavily fancied Netherlands 2-0 in the last round, taking full advantage of their extra man whilst the Red and White brushed aside Wales with a 4-0 victory as they continued their inspired Euro 2020 run.
Price wise, the Danes are the favourites here at around 11/10. This gives them a 48% chance of victory according to the implied probability of the price, however, they have actually won 99% of their games when priced accordingly. Therefore, you could make a case that this price is too big. The Czech’s, on the other hand, are priced at 14/5 (implied probability of 26%), yet they have only won 7% of their games at these odds.
Since the World Cup 2018, Denmark have played 25 competitive fixtures and only lost four, three of which were against Denmark and the other was the opening game of Euro2020 against Finland. All things considered, I am happy to side with the value here and tout the Danes to progress.
Another angle I like for this one is Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg to win UEFA’s Star Man. Bet365 have this priced at 14/1, listed under the ‘Players' tab as ‘Man of the Match’.
The Czech’s went man for man in out of possession against the Dutch and a main aim of this tactic was to restrict the space and time Georginio Wijnaldum had on the ball. This is best illustrated by the fact that Barca’s new boy only had 26 touches in the game, he has averaged 53 this summer and had 71 vs Ukraine! It is also worth noting that his opposite number, Tomas Holes, won man of the match and attempted twice as many tackles as any player on his team.
I think Jaroslav Silhavy will opt for a similar approach against the Danes and as the Czech Republic restricts the space for Braithwaite and Damsgaard in a low block, it will create it for Hojbjerg and Thomas Delaney at the base of the midfield and this should really allow them to dictate the play.
Spurs’ midfielder has not won Man of the Match yet in Euro 2020, but he has been extremely influential. He tops the Danes charts for assists (3), key passes (2.3) and average passes per game (71.5). It is also worth noting that only Braithwaite and Maehle have a higher shots per game average than his 1.80.
Therefore, in a game that will require guile, grit and quality, I think Hojbjerg will stand out and at 14/1 this bet will provide us with a bit of entertainment.