DANIEL MCCULLOCH (@DMcCulloch1984) is back to share his betting thoughts on Super Sunday's showdown between Crystal Palace and Leicester.
Crystal Palace v Leicester | Sunday 3rd November 2019, 14:00 | Sky Sports
While watching the Southampton vs Leicester game last Friday my immediate attention was drawn to whoever Leicester would be playing the following weekend, in the hope that The Foxes would be far too short.
Leicester have scored 25 league goals from just ten league games this season but it must be noted that they have scored 12 of those in the 125 minutes that they have played against 10 men. I like Brendan Rodgers and do believe that he is an excellent manager but still feel like they are going off to short in many games.
Unfortunately, both the eye and data test suggest to me that Crystal Palace are not a side I want to be backing. Expected Goals (xG) tables suggest that they have earned around 4-5 points more than they have deserved while big VAR calls have gone in their favour against both Arsenal and West Ham in recent weeks.
Selhurst Park has hardly been a happy home-place for Roy Hodgson’s side, however, with nine league defeats and just five victories last season, all of which gives me the indicator that the outright market is to be avoided.
Looking elsewhere, my attention was drawn to opposing goals, with the Under 2.5 Goals market my preferred method of attack.
There have been just seven goals across Crystal Palace’s five home games to date this season and the over 2.5 goals bet has obliged in just four of their 10 league matches. It has been successful in seven of Leicester’s 10 encounters but two of those came when they played against 10 men for long periods.
For the more cautious of you, perhaps it is worth keeping the 2-1 away victory on side – Leicester have won in this manner on three occasions already in this campaign – but I will keep it simple and take the 5/6 with BetVictor on Under 2.5 Goals to be scored.
Crystal Palace v Leicester – Under 2.5 Goals (5/6 BetVictor)