GROUP C at the Copa America concludes on Monday night as Uruguay take on Chile. Tom Love (@TomLove_18) shares his betting thoughts.
Chile v Uruguay | Tuesday 25th June 2019, 00:00 | Premier Sports
Group C rounds off the initial stages of the Copa America before the quarter-finals and there’s still a fair bit to be settled.
Uruguay have to win this game in order to finish top as they’re on four points with rivals Chile on six. Ultimately, the winners of the group will play against a third-placed side in the last-eight and avoid Colombia, as well as having an extra day rest – that fate will fall to whomever finishes second.
Given that dynamic it will be interesting to see if La Roja come here with a defensive mindset and try and get a point to secure top spot. They’ve scored six goals in their two games and have looked decent going forward.
At the back, I’m not overly convinced though; Japan were unlucky in the opening game and despite losing 4-0 the Blue Samurai won the Expected Goals (xG) battle. They did also concede against a disinterested Ecuador outfit so it’s hard to have too much faith in them keeping chances at a premium.
Uruguay appeal at the prices
Uruguay were surprisingly held to a draw against Japan last time out – it wasn’t for the want of trying, mind. La Celeste outshot the Asia Cup finalists 29-12 with a hefty 10 of those efforts landing on-target. They’ll be eager to make their dominance count here though and at 6/5 (Betfair) I think they look a good thing.
I was keen on this side ante-post and they know only a win will do in order to finish top of the pile and get a more favourable draw. Oscar Tabarez has the most settled and organised side on the continent – it’s their strong spine that stands out and they’ve a young midfield who are getting used to playing with each other.
Up front they have an array of options too with Luis Suarez and Edison Cavani the starters, however Christian Stuani and Maxi Gomez can make a physical impact off the bench if needs be.
Before the tournament I wasn’t mad keen on Chile as I do think they’re opposable against the better teams. Two late goals against Japan put a flattering look on the final scoreline and I think they will meet their match here.
I’d have Uruguay around even-money – as most bookies do – so 6/5 therefore with Betfair is appealing. I think there’s a touch of value in backing Tabarez’s team to get the job done, triumph and finish top of Group C this Monday night.
Chile v Uruguay – Uruguay to win (6/5 Betfair)