Chelsea vs Porto | Tuesday 13th April 2021, 20:00 | BT Sport
Chelsea take on Porto in the second leg of their Champions League quarter-final tie on Tuesday, with the Blues holding a 2-0 lead from the first leg.
Both legs are taking place at Sevilla’s Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan stadium due to COVID-19 travel restrictions.
Porto will be boosted by the return of Mehdi Taremi and top goalscorer Sergio Oliveira after both served one-match suspensions in the first leg.
Had Sergio Conceicao had the duo available, the result could well have been different, with Porto actually playing the more progressive football at times from what I saw.
Indeed, the Dragons racked up an impressive nine corners to Chelsea’s four, so I’m inclined to back them to earn the most corners again at 7/4 (bet365).
If this was being played by Stamford Bridge then I could perhaps understand the pricing, but it’s the same venue; Porto will have two of their best players thrown back into the side; and they will be chasing the game. I’m surprised it’s that heavily odds-on to be honest, with 9/2 for Porto to reach 7+ corners before their opponents do also looking like a decent price for those fancying something bigger.
Chelsea’s commanding position ultimately came from two finely taken goals by England stars Mason Mount and Ben Chilwell, and it will be interesting to see which XI Thomas Tuchel selects ahead of Saturday’s FA Cup semi-final against Manchester City.
Given that Chilwell started again at Crystal Palace at the weekend and will likely be wanted for his defensive ability against City, I’m hoping Marcos Alonso receives a start at left wing-back as 15/8 (Betfair) is very generous for him to have a shot on target.
Indeed, Alonso has managed this in five of his eight starts under Tuchel, including in the first leg against Atletico Madrid in the previous round of this competition, with Chelsea often overloading their right side before playing a big switch to the Spaniard in acres of space to drive into.
12/1 for Alonso to have 2+ shots on target also appeals given that this has landed in three of his last four league starts. He’s usually on free-kicks, too.
With Clement Turpin officiating I’m not too interested in backing anything in the card markets to be honest. I watched Lyon vs Paris Saint-Germain last month and he was absurdly lenient, letting several incredibly cynical fouls off with nothing more than a warning.
Moreover, in his seven career knockout stages in the Champions League, he has shown only 17 yellow cards (plus one red card) at an average of 2.43 per game. Porto received two cards to Chelsea’s none last week, despite the Blues racking up 17 fouls across the game.
Under 5 Cards has landed in five of Turpin’s seven CL knockout games so could be worth throwing into any Bet Builder-type bets you look into on the night, but I’m not fussed backing it as a standalone bet as second legs always have the potential to go a bit crazy with so much at stake.