Chelsea v Burnley | Monday 22nd April 2019, 20:00 | Sky Sports
Prior to this weekend's matches, Burnley were level on points with Crystal Palace and Chelsea had the same number as Arsenal. It therefore surprises me that you could get 1/2 on Arsenal yet Chelsea are 1/4.
While I recognise that the market feels that Chelsea are a better side than the Gunners, Burnley's recent record suggests that Chelsea are far too short.
The Clarets have accrued 27 points from their last 15 matches and while traditional thinking is that they are a side that defies the data, they've actually won the Expected Goals (xG) battle in nine of their last 10 matches, including a home game against Tottenham.
Chelsea's home record is decent and the fact that they've conceded just 10 goals from 17 home league matches concerns me a little but at the same time they rarely pass the eye test and the news that the Eden Hazard to Real Madrid move is likely to be confirmed in the coming days is hardly going to improve performance.
In that recent run I referred to, Burnley have beaten Tottenham and scored twice in a draw at Old Trafford and defeat at Anfield. I fancy them to score here and did consider tipping a 2-1 home victory but actually prefer a couple of angles of attack: Burnley +1.5 on the Asian Handicap line at 19/16 with BetVictor and Chelsea to win by a single goal at 3/1. That's 3/1 with SkyBet.
I expect the tenacious Clarets to keep this one close and like the value of both bets.