Chelsea v Bayern Munich: Goals forecast for Stamford Bridge battle


THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE knockout stages continue on Tuesday night. We asked Tom Love (@TomLove_18) to source the best bets from Chelsea's clash with Bayern Munich.

Chelsea v Bayern Munich | Tuesday 25th February 2020, 20:00 | BT Sport

The draw for the Last 16 of the Champions League threw up some mouthwatering clashes and this was certainly one of them. Both these sides have won this trophy in the past decade, Bayern ousting Borussia Dortmund at Wembley in 2013 and Chelsea shocking Bayern in that monumental victory in their own back yard in 2012.

Chelsea were underdogs in that final just like they will be for this tie. The English side are rated as 4/1 (Sportingbet) quotes to qualify and you’d have to think they’ll have to win this first home leg to give themselves a fighting chance of reaching the quarter-finals.

The Blues should be full of confidence after their big win over London rivals Spurs on Saturday but I’m not getting carried away with that – Spurs were once again poor away from home and Chelsea have only won back-to-back games once since October so I’m not sure they will kick on from that victory.

Bayern will tempt many in at 10/11 (Sport Nation) and it’s understandable why. However, I do think the majority of teams who go away in the first leg would be happy to get a draw so odds-on quotes aren’t quite for me.

With David Alaba slotting in at centre half alongside the returning Lucas Hernandez could mean there will be opportunities from crosses perhaps for the hosts and I’d be shocked if Frank Lampard doesn’t once again start with Olivier Giroud to try to target that.

With that in mind I’m inclined to look into the goals market and we can get some 88/100 when combining Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 GoalS on William Hill’s Build YourOdds feature and that does appeal.  Chelsea will have to go for it at the Bridge and Bayern are pretty irrepressible going forward.

The Blues have seen this bet land in four of their last five and Bayern are far from watertight at the back, conceding twice at home to rock bottom Paderborn on Friday night says it all. They also conceded three against Hoffenheim but they still ran out on the winning side in both those games.

These two racked up some of the best Expected Goals (xG) figures in the group stages. Chelsea were third highest with 16.9 over their six games – an average of 2.81 per-game – and Bayern posted an xG for of 20.5, by far the best out of any team in the competition, 3.40 per-game. Madness.

It would also be remiss of me to not talk about the current Champions League top scorer, Robert Lewandowski. He has 10 goals already in just six games and is odds-on favourite to take the Golden Boot. It’s therefore no surprise to see him going off as short as 4/7 to notch anytime here, however I think there’s more value looking at him in the shots market.

Betfair go 6/4 on the Pole having two or more shots on target and that just looks too big all things considered. Lewa is averaging a mammoth 6.4 shots in this competition this season and even more impressively is averaging a crazy four shots on target per-game.

In the Bundesliga, Lewandowski is averaging 2.4 shots on-target too but he brings his A-game for the continent and against a Chelsea side who have failed to convince defensively this season, 6/4 looks very generous – I was expecting even-money if not shorter, to be honest.

Best Bets

Chelsea v Bayern Munich – Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals (88/100 William Hill)

Chelsea v Bayern Munich – Robert Lewandowski to have 2+ shots on-target (6/4 Betfair)

About Author

I was first interested in the betting industry by doing the odd coupon at 18 - when I’d see a team at odds I didn’t expect it sparked my curiosity as to why that was. I’d go and research everything around that club: form, team news, manager quotes, and try give my own price in an aim to out-do the bookies. I personally enjoy punting on the Football League and European competitions. I like to diversify what markets I bet on so sometimes it’s outrights, goals, player cards etc. The Football League angle comes from being an avid Bradford City fan which has its ups (reaching a League Cup final and beating Chelsea in the FA Cup) and its downs (The entirety of 2018). Hobbies of mine include playing football, cross country running, travelling and playing Football Manager.

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