CARDIFF host Crystal Palace in a crucial fixture at the bottom of the Premier League on Saturday evening. Gaurav Chaddah (@Gchaddahjourno) shares his betting thoughts.
Cardiff v Crystal Palace | Saturday 4th May 2019, 17:30 | BT Sport
This is last chance saloon for Cardiff, who simply must win if they are to take the battle to avoid relegation to the last day of the season.
Neil Warnock’s men can hold out hope that 17th-placed Brighton conclude their campaign with tough-looking fixtures against Arsenal and Manchester City. But the Bluebirds still have it all do themselves and will need to win here before heading to Old Trafford next week in search of safety.
However, the betting would suggest the Welsh outfit have next to no chance, with Boylesports making City 1/33 to be playing Championship football next season.
With this game being do-or-die, I’d expect the hosts to come out and give it a real good go from the start . Unfortunately, Cardiff have lost eight of there last 10 games and went down to already-relegated Fulham last weekend, making Warnock’s men rather hard to trust.
Cardiff developed a good run of results at home before Christmas, which give them a foundation, beating Brighton, Wolves and Southampton in quick succession. But that was quickly followed by a 5-1 drubbing from Manchester United and since then the Welsh outfits home record reads W2-D1-L5 – hardly inspiring by any means.
Eagles flying on the road
The season is over all but in name for Crystal Palace, who sit in 12th, and can’t finish any higher than 11th or lower than 14th.
Despite their mid-table nature, Roy Hodgson’s men boast the sixth-best away record in the Premier League and with pace and power going forward, are quickly being respected for their counter-attacking ability.
Scalps this season have included a memorable victory at Manchester City in December and most recently a 3-2 victory at the Emirates, and the Eagles will no doubt be more than confident of taking another three points here.
It’s certainly been a tale of two halves for the Eagles on the road. Prior to beating City in mid-December, the South London side had managed just W2-D2-L6 on their travels with only one of those six defeats arriving against the Big Six.
Things however took a turn and they’ve since W6-D1-L2 in games as guests with those aforementioned triumphs at City and Arsenal, as well as at Wolves, Newcastle and Leicester, only falling to defeat at Spurs and Liverpool.
Palace have also notched goals in 15 of there 18 away games this season, with only Manchester United, Spurs and Everton keeping them off the scoresheet.
The betting angle
The home side simply have no choice but to come out and attack from the off, anything but three points here will see Cardiff all but confirmed as relegated.
This should play nicely into Palace’s hands, who won’t mind sitting back and countering. And the longer the game goes on without a Cardiff goal, the more open they become at the back.
Palace’s away form in the second half of the season simply can’t be ignored and whilst they have little to play for, they will still want to finish the season strong and I feel they have a good chance of getting another three points here.
7/4 with Betfair is very much overpriced, in my opinion, and I’m tipping the Eagles for another away-day success.
Cardiff v Crystal Palace – Crystal Palace to win (7/4 Betfair)