MANCHESTER CITY hold an unassailable first leg lead when heading to Burton for the conclusion of their EFL Cup semi-final with Burton on Wednesday night. Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) hunts a value play.
Burton v Manchester City | Wednesday 23rd January 2019, 19:45 | Sky Sports
With Manchester City going in to this game with a nine-goal lead, there has been much discussion about the volume of changes the Citizens could make.
While this makes it very difficult to get involved in the player markets, the reality is that the depths of their talent are incomparable with any other side in the Premier League and I am pretty sure that their second string would comfortably finish in the top four.
The reality is that Burton are a mid-table League One side and while losing 9-0 will have been an embarrassing experience for them, manager Nigel Clough is realistic about the gulf between the two sides. He will hope that his side provide a better account of themselves but the 4/6 on Manchester City -2 does hold some appeal.
However, in mismatches such as this I tend to try to keep my stakes low and instead prefer to back the 3-0 and 3-1 scorelines. City to win 3-0 is 15/2 with Sportingbet – to date this season, City have won by this scoreline in five of their 35 games across all competitions.
3-1 is 19/2 with BetVictor. City have won in this manner on four occasions already this season and this is a very common result since Pep Guardiola took charge. I simply believe that the probability of either of these scorelines occurring are a lot higher than the odds suggest.