TWO struggling Premier League sides meet on Monday night at Turf Moor when Burnley host Newcastle. Football betting analyst Ross Casey (@RossCasey24) runs the rule over the best betting options.
Burnley v Newcastle | Monday 26th November 2018, 20:00 | Sky Sports
Two sides in worrying positions face each other on Monday night, 17th-placed Burnley take on Newcastle, who are just two places above them. However, recent form is with the away side here, with the Magpies picking up seven points from their last three games.
After winning just two of their 19 games this season across all competitions and aware of the visitors' recent good form, Burnley have been made underdogs here by the bookies with a best price of 39/20 (Bet365).
Newcastle are impressing of late, but they have picked up both of their wins at home and have yet to win on the road – can they be trusted as 9/5 favourites?
Last season feels a million years ago for Burnley as their brilliant performances that got them to Europe have faded away. A poor summer transfer window was probably largely to blame for that, with Sean Dyche trusting that his squad didn't require wholesale changes.
The Clarets played lots of European football and fell short anyway and Turf Moor is far from the tough place it was to go last season. However, they do have a good home record against Newcastle, winning each of their last five.
Burnley have only scored six goals in their last seven games and only mustered one shot on-target against Leicester last time out, so scoring goals is certainly an issue. In fact, they have had the fewest shots on-target of all in the Premier League.
Three of the past four fixtures between these sides have gone Under 2.5 Goals – and that is available at a short price of 8/13 with Paddy Power.
The return of Salomon Rondon from injury has given Newcastle a huge boost of late – they are unbeaten since his comeback. The big Venezuelan has netted twice in three games and is a decent looking price here at 13/5 to score again.
Newcastle do have major injury worries ahead of this one though, with key players Jamaal Lascelles and Jonjo Shelvey both facing late fitness tests. That worries me a little in terms of backing Newcastle. For a side that do not travel well, missing two important cogs would be a real blow.
I also don't know if Newcastle can bounce back into their decent form after the international break – did it arrive at the worst possible time, stopping their momentum?
The betting angle
Newcastle look a little too short to win here considering their dismal away record and possible injury problems, therefore I am going to side with backing Burnley draw no bet at 51/50.
The Clarets are capable of pulling off decent performances – see their 4-0 demolition of Bournemouth at Turf Moor – and against a Magpies side that has not won away this season, I will take an odds-against price here, with the safety net of our money back if the game ends in a draw.
Burnley v Newcastle – Burnley draw no bet (51/50 Marathon)