Lucas Swain-Britton(@LucasSwain95) shares his verdict on Thursday night's Premier league tussle between Burnley and Chelsea.
Chelsea v Burnley | Thursday 19th April 2018, 19:45 | Sky Sports
I mentioned this on another one of my previews on here recently, but I’m still struggling to get my head around the fact the Europa League beckons for Burnley this season. There could be a spanner in the works for Sean Dyche’s side if Southampton win the FA Cup, but that’s unlikely.
The Clarets are currently enjoying their best run in the Premier League with five wins back-to-back and in turn sit top of the form table. However, Chelsea are set to provide a sterner test and the question is whether they can come out on top once again?
Any Moor goals?
Whilst Burnley fans won’t be moaning their side’s fantastic performances this season and potentially bringing European football to Turf Moor next season, there is one trend when teams travel to Lancashire and that’s a dearth of goals.
They’ve scored the least amount of goals at home season and a staggering 12 out of 16 matches have gone Under 2.5 Goals. Naturally, the bookmakers have identified this, but price isn’t quite as short as I was expecting and it seems as if Chelsea are fancied to go to Burnley and register at least one goal.
However, if we delve deeper into the stats we’ll see Chelsea away records following similar trends. Yes, the Blues came back to win 3-2 at St.Mary’s Stadium recently, but when Antonio Conte’s side travel to top-half opposition seven of their 11 matches have gone Under 2.5 Goals.
What’s rather interesting are the odds Burnley are priced up at here. You can find the Clarets at 7/2 in most places with Chelsea being the odds-on favourite and considering just six points and Arsenal separate these two sides in the league table that’s frankly absurd.
There’s no way I can justify backing Chelsea in any way at those odds, even if they were on better form heading into this. I’m not quite confident enough to put my neck out on the line and say Burnley are going to win this one, but for sure at that price it represents value and I certainly wouldn’t question anybody to put their money there.
What I do like the look of is the Asian Handicap market and the+0.5 to be precise. If you stake this pre-game it works the same as a double chance bet, so it may be worth comparing the two prices and seeing if there is a difference as it’s common that one of the two offer a better price despite being the same bet.