TOM LOVEYS (@ValueBetMethods) analyses the odds ahead of Saturday's Bundesliga card having scooped three winners from four this midweek.
Mainz v Bayern Leverkusen | Saturday 14.30
Bayer Leverkusen travel to Mainz this Saturday hoping to kick-start their stuttering season. With only four points from four games, Roger Schmidt and co would have expected more and the midweek goalless clash with Augsburg would have done little to help.
They face a Mainz side with two wins, a draw and a loss from their first four games, the loss was a respectable defeat at Dortmund, whilst the 4-4 draw against Hoffenheim will feel more like a defeat considering Die Nullfunfer were 4-1 up with 20 minutes to play.
Mainz are now in their eighth consecutive Bundesliga season and are an enjoyable team to watch and our angle here will hopefully play on that ‘entertainment’ feel.
I’m hoping for a game with goals; Leverkusen’s two away games have seen three goals each and Mainz’s solitary home encounter saw that amazing 4-4 thriller.
Schmidt will want his side to kick-start the season, being attack-minded. Their last 20 Bundesliga away games have seen 14 feature Over 2.5 Goals, whilst conversely 11/20 Mainz home clashes have seen three goals or more.
The last three clashes at the Opel Arena have seen this bet land and at the odd price of 79/100 (188Bet) (about 4/5) is my play here.
Eintracht Frankfurt v Hertha Berlin | Saturday 14.30
Eintracht Frankfurt have quickly put behind their struggles of last season and look a transformed side in the early stages of this season.
Having needed a two-legged play-off to secure their Bundesliga status last year, a season of struggle could have been expected.
However, the Eagles have won 3/4 games this season, most recently an impressive 2-0 away victory at a notoriously difficult Ingolstadt team, they’ve also seen off Leverkusen and Schalke as Niko Kovac’s side look to get out of the traps early.
They face another side that have started the season well, Hertha Berlin. The side from the capital came unstuck last week against Bayern, but had previously beaten Freiburg, Ingolstadt and Schalke before this defeat.
Eintracht are strong at their home venue of the Commerzbank Arena, having won five of their last six Bundesliga games here and nine of the last 20. On the flip side, Hertha did struggle away from Berlin last year and have lost 11 of the last 20 despite an away victory a few weeks ago.
I’m keen to keep with the momentum of the Eagles here and they can be backed at 147/100 (Mararthon) (2.47) to get the three points which may be the ‘value’ call based on previous stats.
However, Hertha do have quality, Mitch Weiser especially and I like the way Pal Dardai goes about his managing style with a smile on his face.
So with this in mind and being a cautious chap, you can back Eintracht -0.25 Asian Handicap at 21/20 (Bet365) which means we’ll get half of our stake returned should the game finish in a draw.
Either way it should be an exciting clash between two in-form teams.
Mainz v Bayer Leverkusen – Over 2.5 Goals (79/100 188Bet)
Eintracht Frankfurt v Hertha Berlin – Eintracht Frankfurt -0.25 Asian Handicap (21/20 Bet365)