TOM LOVEYS (@ValueBetMethods) analyses the odds ahead of Saturday's Bundesliga card having scooped five winners from eight in the past week.
Hertha Berlin v Hamburg | Saturday 14.30
The talking point for this game will be all about new Hamburg coach, Markus Gisdol, stepping in after Bruno Labbadia was sacked last week after Hamburg’s poor start to the season.
They sit in 17th, with just one point from five games and a trip to the capital, despite a new manager will hardly inspire confidence.
Hertha have W3-D1-L1 in their first five and are W2-D0-L0 at the Olympic Stadium, beating both Frieburg and Schalke. Last week they were seconds away from another win, but Frankfurt found a late equalizer in a 3-3 thriller.
Whilst new managers can often inspire some new levels of confidence and optimism, it doesn’t disguise the Red Shorts’ issues having lost 10 of their last 20 games on the road.
At 17/16 – the Old Lady are another tempting proposition, however it’s not quite big enough for me – so another angle is Hertha to score two or more goals, priced at 5/4 (Betfair), which has occurred in 11 of Hertha’s last 20 at home.
The last two seasons’ head-to-head battles have seen 3-0 victories to Hertha at home and it’s a result we’ll gladly take this week
Bayern Munich v Koln | Saturday 14.30
Dominant champions Bayern Munich have already picked up maximum points and so it’s always difficult to find a value angle, when prices are so cramped. The side is littered with so much quality you can understand the layer’s wariness at offering up anything at a standout price.
Conversely, it’s again difficult to oppose them in anyway, but we might have something – for 45 minutes at least, where we’ll be looking to profit with Koln’s stubbornness.
A difficult side to break down, Koln have only lost five of their last 20 away from home and battled back marvellously to beat Schalke 3-1 in their last away game. They will have a plan and are always efficient and organized, set-up by coach Peter Stoger.
His side have started this season superbly, but the team will face its toughest test on Saturday afternoon. If Bayern don’t come out of the traps flying, the value call here is for Koln +1 on the first-half Asian Handicap.
Priced at 43/50 (188BET). It’s a selection that will only lose, should Bayern have a two goal lead or better at the break – our stakes will be returned should Bayern be leading by a goal at interval.
Twenty-three of the last 40 respective home/away games would have been clear winners in this market – with a further 11 of these ending in a push.
It may be a bit of a chance, but Koln are unbeaten in 10 Bundesliga games and it’s a game where the top defences in the league are on display.
Whilst Bayern undoubtedly have the quality to comfortably win – we hope it takes them more than the first 45 minutes to get any type of momentum going.
Bayer Leverkusen v Borussia Dortmund | Saturday 17.30 | BT Sport
Match of the week sees Leverkusen host Dortmund at the BayArena.
Both sides were involved in Champions League action, with Bayer seconds away from a decent victory at Monaco, only to be denied by a last-gasp strike whilst Dortmund also drew, in a thriller with Real Madrid – Andre Schurrle with an 87th-minute equaliser in a 2-2 encounter.
Dortmund sit in second, predictably behind Bayern whilst Leverkusen still look to kick-start the season, they sit in 10th with a mixed bag of results.
Their form at the BayArena is decent though and much confidence would be gained with a result against mighty Dortmund, They’ve won 12 of their last 20 games at home and will need their crowd to help them to a result.
Dortmund have been scoring for fun, their most recent away victory was a 5-1 at Wolfsburg, however the game before, they were undone by a vibrant RB Leipzig, so certainly are beatable away from home.
Maybe this is the game where Leverkusen find their feet – it would be difficult to outright plump for a home win, although the 14/5 is attractive.
As ever, the +0.50 Asian Handicap start comes into play and at 9/10 for Leverkusen to win or draw, this will be our selection.
Albeit with not a great head-to-head record, this bet would have been a winner in 2/3 last games between the two at the BayArena and could represent value if Dortmund are still struggling from their Champions League encounter.