WE’RE delighted to welcome our new Bundesliga expert Lucas Swain (@BundesligaLucas) to the team. Here’s Lucas’ thoughts on the best bets from the German top tier this weekend…
After approximately a year on after concluding my Bundesliga betting column for another website, I’ve finally been offered the position to start writing one again, but this time with the guys at the aptly named WeLoveBetting – I couldn’t be more delighted with the news. Hopefully you’re just as excited as myself, here’s to us making money at the bookmakers expense.
This week in Germany the focus is on Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund, as you’d naturally expect. However, as is the case with the majority of Bayern Munich matches, there’s little value backing anything but a handicap. Whilst Bayern Munich currently sit on a Asian Handicap line of -1,-1.5, which is entirely coverable, it should be noted that Dortmund’s performances against Bayern always seem to be strong, so despite their woefully bad season thus far, it should be a match approached with caution.
Paderborn v Hertha Berlin | Sunday 16.30 | BT Sport 1
The match which first appeared to offer value to me was the clash between Paderborn, the Bundesliga’s surprise package, and Hertha Berlin. Paderborn’s performances in the Bundesliga to date have been better than anybody expected the small city side to achieve – their results at home proving particularly notable. In five home matches Paderborn have managed to pick up eight points (2W, 2D and 1L), their only loss being a narrow one to one of the unbeaten quartet, Borussia Monchengladbach.
Meanwhile, Hertha Berlin’s away performances leave a lot to be desired after only collecting one point in four matches, that singular result coming away at struggling Freiburg. Hertha have proved this season they’re a real Jekyll and Hyde side, holding a similar pattern to a team managed by Mirko Slomka. Currently sitting in 11th position solely on the merits of their home results, it’s likely the team from the capital are going to struggle when they visit North Rhine-Westphalia.
However, because of Paderborn’s poor club stature and recent tough fixtures the bookmakers currently hold a skewed perception on how this match should be priced, allowing for bettors to get a valuable price on Paderborn Draw No Bet. All the stats point in favour of Paderborn, so it may be worth having a small play on the home side outright, but Hertha’s squad still remains superior on paper, which is why I’ve opted for the DNB angle at 10/11 with William Hill.
Mainz v Werder Bremen | Saturday 14.00
Another bet which I really like the look of takes us to the match-up between Mainz and Werder Bremen. Bremen’s season has been nothing short of catastrophic so far, symbolised by the recent sacking of now-ex-head coach Robin Dutt. Bremen’s side simply isn’t good enough, and it’s unlikely the change of coach will make any significant difference until January where investment in the transfer window must be targeted.
Mainz have managed to have a fantastic start to the season considering they were handicapped with the loss of Nicolai Muller, Eric Choupo-Moting and Matthias Ostrzolek in the summer transfer window, not forgetting Germany’s most in-demand manager Thomas Tuchel also departed the club.
The Carnival Club currently find themselves lying in sixth position, whereas Bremen are currently occupying bottom in the league – the first time they’ve been there for longer than two matchdays in 16 years!
The gulf in quality between these two sides is quite significant, which makes me further bemused at the fact you’re able to pick up Mainz outright win at 17/20 (BetVictor).The home side did recently lose their unbeaten run to the hands of Wolfsburg, but it shouldn’t stop them conquering a Bremen side with a real dearth of quality.
Paderborn v Hertha Berlin – Paderbon draw no bet (10/11 William Hill)
Mainz v Werder Bremen – Mainz to win (17/20 BetVictor)