BUNDESLIGA boff Tom Loveys (@ValueBetMethods) returns to shares his favourite fancies from Saturday's action in Germany.
Darmstadt v Augsburg | Saturday 14:30
Bottom-club Darmstadt entertain Augsburg this weekend in the Bundesliga.
The Lillies did beat Dortmund a few weeks back but look destined for relegation unless they can get some type of positive momentum going. All of Darmstadt’s points have come at home this season and they definitely need to take all three here.
Augsburg sit in 13th with 24 points and whilst at the moment they seem quite comfortable, a string of bad results could see them embroiled in a relegation scrap. Their 10 games away from home are a mixed bag of W3-D3-L4 but surely they have to feel positive going to a side that have lost 15/21 games, conceding 41 in the process.
One side note, sees Darmstadt’s Hamit Alintop up against his twin brother from Augsburg, Halil Alintop as the two sides clash at the unique Bollenfalltor Stadium with it’s big standing areas and special charm.
It seems sensible to be on the side of the away team here – wins at Werder Bremen, Ingolstadt and Wolfsburg this season could be added to. Die Fuggerstadter beat Darmstadt earlier in the year and have a strong unbeaten record at the Bollenfalltor over the years.
The odds indicate a bit of safety involved with the Augsburg draw no bet option at 97/100 (Bet365) the most attractive proposition here.
Freiburg v Borussia Dortmund | Saturday 14:30
I was quite impressed with Freiburg last week, although on the face of it a 2-2 draw away at Hamburg is nothing to pull on the lederhosen for, they came back twice from a goal down to get a point and showed some great attacking football.
It’s back home to the Schwarzwald Stadium which is has been a happy place for the hosts with 7/10 wins this season.
Saturday though, will be a real test up against the might of Dortmund – the visitors sit in third with only a patchy record away from home, W3-D4-L4 is not the sort of form Thomas Tuchel is expecting and will be keen to put that right to try and make up the 13 points difference to leaders Bayern.
With an embarrassing defeat to Darmstadt and more recently in the Champions League to Benfica on the list of ‘away results’, I can’t have much confidence in Dortmund, so it may be worth playing on the side of the hosts and their impressive form at home once again.
Freiburg +1 Asian Handicap is our selection, which would only lose should BVB win by a two-goal margin. Our stake would be returned with a Freiburg loss to a one-goal margin – anything better would see us paid out in full – something which has obliged in 15/21 respective home/away games this season.
We’ll hope that Freiburg coach Christian Streich can mastermind a plan of victory (or a draw) for followers this weekend at 89/100 (Marathon).
Hertha Berlin v Eintracht Frankfurt | Saturday 17:30 | BT Sport
Hertha have been a revelation at home, winning 8/10 at the Olympic Stadium this season.
This record was literally seconds away from 9/10 last week against champions Bayern Munich but for a 96th minute Lewandowski equaliser which had Hertha coach Pal Dardai furiously pointing to his watch wondering where this extra minute had come from.
The Old Lady entertain the Eagles from Frankfurt, who have had a much more positive season so far compared to last year’s relegation threatened efforts.
However, Frankfurt have lost 2/3 away games since the winter break conceding three goals each in the games against Leipzig and Leverkusen and seem to have wandered into a sticky patch of form.
Frankfurt may sit a place ahead of their Saturday evening opponents, but the stats point to being on the side of Hertha here. With 17 wins from 27 games at home over the last two seasons, Hertha are available at odds-against to win 9/8 with Marathon.
This seems to be a value call at a ground where they’ve done little wrong. Last week’s performance against Bayern only added to the confidence shown at home and they’ve beaten Frankfurt three times in the last five head-to-head meetings including a 6-1 demolition on the opening day of the 2013/14 season.