BUNDESLIGA boff Tom Loveys (@ValueBetMethods) returns to shares his favourite fancy from Sunday's action.
Bayer Leverkusen v Freiburg | Sunday 17th September 2017, 14:30 | BT Sport
Leverkusen (17th: W0-D1-L2) go in search of their first win of the season wgen entertaining Freiburg (15th: W0-D2-L1) at the Bay Arena this Sunday.
After a disappointing campaign last year, Bayer have hardly turned that form around into the 2017/18 campaign and with a few departures, the season could be one of transition. Two losses this season against Bayern Munich and Mainz have put some pressure into delivering this Sunday.
Freiburg have hardly fared much better, a couple of draws and a defeat to Leipzig is their tally so far and coach Christian Streich will be missing key players through injury and suspension.
Leverkusen have been priced up at 47/100 which I can’t feel like being involved with in their current plight, whilst the visitors are seeing offers of around 7/1, with no away points in the last four Bundesliga clashes over this and last season.
This is a side that held Dortmund to a 0-0 draw whilst down to 10 men – and are a team that have avoided defeat in 14/20 clashes against bottom-six opposition.
We’ll be hoping that they’ll be tough to breakdown and come away with something for their efforts.
Borussia Dortmund v Koln | Sunday 17th September 2017, 17:00 | BT Sport
Maybe this fixture will get a few more viewers than normal following the Koln’s fan exploits in London last week in the Europa League. Their ties don’t get any easier with a trip to the mighty Dortmund.
Sitting at the bottom of the Bundesliga with zeo points facing the “second” best Bundesliga side is not the most positive of thoughts and at 12/1, The Billy Goats (18th: W0-D0-L3) have been given a very slim chance against a side that are yet to concede a Bundesliga goal.
Dortmund (4th: W2-D1-L0) will be expected to win at ease with an abundance of goals – here lies the possible value angle. On the Asian Goal line, Under 3 Goals is priced at 147/100 (Marathon), which is only a loser if the game sees four or more goals.
This looks a bit big for me, with 15 of their combined last 40 home/away matches going Under 2.5 and a further 10 would have seen stakes returned with exactly three goals.
The Billy Goats will be desperate to try and get something, so will need to keep things tight. They will have memories of their 0-0 draw at the end of last season at the Westfalenstadion and coach Stoger has an unbeaten record against Dortmund through six matches.
Both sides are coming off European defeats in London and have a bit to prove, we’ll hope for a slightly cagier affair where goals may not be quite so fluid as expected.