PREMIER LEAGUE analyst Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) takes a look at Super Sunday's final showdown of the season between Brighton and Manchester City.
Brighton v Manchester City | Sunday 12th May 2019, 15:00
When Liverpool drew 0-0 at Goodison Park on 3rd March, few would have thought that that was the last major twist in this absorbing and relentless title race.
Manchester City travel to the south coast to take on a Brighton side who since 9th March have gained just three points, scored just scored goals and failed to secure a single victory.
Few are giving the Seagulls a chance to get anything from this game but while I generally hold that view myself, their ability to keep games tight against the big sides – while generally being outplayed – is pretty impressive. City only won the reverse fixture 2-0, while the dour FA Cup semi-final between the pair finished with a single goal victory for the Citizens.
Brighton also lost both games against Liverpool by a 1-0 scoreline and in their 12 matches against the Big Six in all competitions this term, only Chelsea have put three goals past them – a 3-0 victory at Stamford Bridge.
With this in mind, I wouldn’t put anyone off Brighton +2.5 on the Asian Handicap line at 7/10 but will chose a more inventive angle myself. Manchester City’s last 10 league wins read 1-0, 1-0, 3-1, 2-0, 2-0, 3-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-0, 1-0. With that in mind, I like the look of City to win either 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 at 19/10 with BetVictor.
Such a bet has obliged in eight of their last 10 matches, 15 of their 31 league victories this season and 12 of Brighton’s 19 league defeats. Additionally, it’s been victorious in eight of the Sussex club’s 12 matches against the Big Six this term.
Adding 2-1 may seem unnecessary but there is another angle I like – Shane Duffy anytime at 16/1 with Bet365. If Chris Hughton’s men are to cause City any problems, they will likely come from set pieces and the man from Derry has five goals in 37 league appearances this term.
Even taking in to account the quality of opposition, this seems like a big price to me. The centre back managed to score against Manchester United this season and with Brighton knowing that this is their most likely method of scoring, I think he’s worth a few pennies.