CHAMPIONSHIP specialist Vince Blissett (@Vince_RFC) shares his verdict from Saturday evening's clash between Brighton and Bristol City.
Brighton v Bristol City | Saturday 17:30 | Sky Sports 1
I’ll keep this short and sweet. If Brighton win they clinch the title and the presentation of the trophy will be after the game. Albion boast the best home record in the league and will want to go out in style in the last game at the Amex this season.
Bristol City, on the other hand, have survived the threat of relegation and can enjoy the last few games. On paper, this should be an easy Brighton win.
Robins’ rotten away record
However, the Robins have pulled themselves out of danger taking 10 points from the last 12, with nine of those gained at home so maybe it isn’t as straightforward as you may think.
There’s a key point in that that last sentence though – points have all been accumulated at home. City have picked up just 14 of their points away from home and only Nottingham Forest (11) and Rotherham (1) have a worse record.
Thirteen of Brighton’s games at the Amex have seen Over 2.5 goals and 14 of Bristol City’s away games have also surpassed that mark so goals are likely. The odds reflect that though so I’m avoiding that route. Instead it’s the win market that is of intrigue.
The betting angle
The champions-elect are 3/5 to pick up the victory and that looks awfully generous if you like those kind of things. That’s not a price for me though. In these situations I go straight to the Asian Handicap.
Brighton will want to go out with a bang and will pick up the win, quite possibly with ease. With that in mind the -1 Asian Handicap angle at 19/20(Bet365) looks just the ticket.
A victory by two goals or more results in win and a one-goal triumph means the selection is void. The only way our money is lost is if Brighton fail to record three points here.
Brighton v Bristol City – Brighton -1 Asian Handicap (19/20 Bet365)