BRENTFORD meet Newcastle on Tuesday night in the EFL Cup quarter-final. Brett Curtis (@Brett_Curtis92) is on-hand to deliver his favourite fancies.
Brentford vs Newcastle | Tuesday 22nd September 2020, 17:30 | Sky Sports
Brentford take on Newcastle in the EFL Cup quarter-final at Brentford Community Stadium on Tuesday. The Bees are odds-on favourites to progress against Steve Bruce’s Premier League side, which may be a surprise to some, but is reflective of their proven ability to beat top tier outfits having already knocked out Southampton, West Brom and Fulham in this competition this season.
Newcastle also appear to be short of confidence after the club’s recent COVID-19 outbreak, failing to convince in the win over West Brom before being thrashed 5-2 at Leeds and failing to overcome 10-man Fulham at the weekend.
It’s a hard game to call before seeing the respective XI’s, with both managers likely to rest key players. Promotion is all that matters to Thomas Frank and Brentford after agonisingly missing out in the play-off final against rivals Fulham last season, while it’s probably a case of right competition, wrong time for Bruce, with several players struggling with fitness or injury.
Ivan Toney has scored 16 league goals in 20 starts since joining Brentford from Peterborough in the recent transfer window, but he has not started their last three games in this competition, so I don’t expect him to tonight either. If he does, though, 11/8 (Betfair) is a great price for him to score anytime, and would be preferable to backing Brentford to win at a similar price.
Instead, I’m looking towards Toney’s 21-year-old deputy Marcus Forss, who has scored five league goals this season at a rate of every 78 minutes. He has also already notched against Premier League opposition (West Brom and Fulham) this season in the previous rounds of this competition.
I can’t believe he’s 10/3 (Betfair), then, to score against a Newcastle defence which is struggling to keep clean sheets and may be more depleted than normal. 25/1 for the Finland international to score a brace is also a big price.
I’m not sure if Bryan Mbuemo will start for the Bees either, but if he does then evens (Betfair) for the mercurial winger to have a shot on target is too good to ignore. He has not scored as prolifically as he did last season, but he did score twice in Brentford’s win against Reading at the weekend, so looks to be coming back into form.
Mbuemo also tested Southampton’s Alex McCarthy twice in his only start in this competition this season, so if Frank does give him the nod, 6/1 for the Frenchman to have 2+ SOT is surely worth a nibble.
For Newcastle, I’m expecting Dwight Gayle to lead the line alongside Andy Carroll. Having scored 23 goals in each of his last two Championship campaigns, we all know how dangerous Gayle is against that calibre of opposition, so 23/10 for him to score anytime is another cracking price, especially after his recent bullet header against West Brom as a substitute.
Should they both start, I’ll be playing Gayle and Forss both to score as a double at 14/1, while adding Mbuemo 2+ SOT to make a tasty 100/1 treble if the Frenchman is also selected.