Brentford vs Liverpool | Saturday 25th September 2021, 17:30 | Sky Sports
The final bit of top-flight action on Saturday takes place in the big smoke as Brentford welcome Premier League leaders Liverpool in front of the cameras.
The hosts start the weekend in the top half having taken eight points from a possible 15. After beating the Gunners on opening day, Wolves in their last fixture and thumping Oldham 7-0 in the Cup- despite making wholesale changes- the Bees have a whiff of an established EPL team already. However, there is a reason Thomas Frank’s side are priced at 6/1 here and that is their opponents.
The Reds campaign has gotten off to a flyer with Jurgen Klopp’s men taking 13 points from a possible 15. In terms of team news though, the German supremo does have some issues here, especially in midfield with Thiago and Naby Keita unlikely to feature. This could see Curtis Jones get his first domestic start of the campaign alongside Fabinho and Jordan Henderson in the engine room.
With the Reds title rivals playing at 12:30, Klopp will be aware that this is a great opportunity to put a little bit of daylight between his side, Chelsea and Man City. Therefore, I think Liverpool to win and the game to feature four or less goals is a nice way in here. So far this campaign, this bet has landed in all of Liverpool's domestic victories as they have beaten Palace, Leeds and Norwich 3-0 and Burnley 2-0.
Offensively, there is no disputing the visitors pedigree, they currently rank top for chances created, have averaged an xG of 3.19 per game and have only conceded to UCL winners Chelsea so far this campaign. This is why I was tempted by ‘BTTS No’ and ‘Liverpool to win to Nil.’
However, the numbers suggest they have been a tad fortunate not to concede more than they have, their xGA currently accumulates to 5.15. Palace generated 0.87 but did not score, Leeds racked up 0.82 but could not beat Allison as was the case with Burnley who had an xG of 0.92. The most unfortunate were Norwich though, who had 14 shots and an xG of 1.81.
I also think Brentford have more than enough attacking flair to bloody the nose of Liverpool here. They have averaged just under 15 shots per game in all competitions this season and have a goals difference of +3. This is why I am also having a little punt of the correct score of 3-1 to Liverpool.
I think Liverpool’s deceiving defensive record, combined with Brentford’s attacking flair and the home advantage is enough to go off here to have a small punt on a price of 13/1.