Borussia Dortmund vs Sevilla | Tuesday 9th March 2021, 20:00 | BT Sport
In this column two weeks ago, I confidently predicted that Sevilla would make good use of home advantage and take a lead in to this second leg of their UCL round of 16 tie with Borussia Dortmund – but the visitors upset the odds and I got that one wrong!
Despite Suso giving the Spaniards the perfect start with a seventh minute opener an Erling Haaland inspired Dortmund roared back to take a 3-1 lead in to the half time interval – although, a late Luuk de Jong goal has given his side some hope as they travel to Germany.
That win for Edin Terzic’s side began a four-game winning run. and although that was emphatically brought to a halt by Bayern Munich at the weekend, that sequence certainly reads better than their opponents, who despite bouncing back with a La Liga triumph over Osasuna, have since gone on to lose three successive games. including being dumped out of the Copa Del Rey after Barcelona overturned a two goal first leg deficit.
This time round the bookies make Dortmund favourites at a best priced 13/10 however I will be giving the result market a wide berth in a game which is tricky to call.
One thing for certain is that trailing by a goal on aggregate and having conceded two away goals, Sevilla will have to attack this second leg at Signal Iduna Park believing that a Dortmund side who are struggling to qualify for next year's competition via their league position are vulnerable and there for the taking.
This should open the game up nicely and ensure goals.
Dortmund aren’t a side that can sit back on a lead and close out games – as perfectly illustrated by, after taking a two-goal lead inside 10 minutes, their capitulation to a 4-2 defeat at the weekend.
Supporters of BVB will point to an unbeaten run of seven UCL home ties and a record of progressing in 14 of 15 UEFA ties in which they have won the first leg away.
Seven of the last 12 Dortmund UCL games have seen both teams score and over 2.5 total goals, while six of Seville's last 10 including four of their last five European games has seen the same outcome.
For that reason, I am very happy to take the odds of 4/5 on offer with Bet 365 for both teams to score here whilst combining for over 2.5 match goals.
One man Dortmund will be desperate to have in their starting eleven is their prolific marksman Erling Haaland.
The Norwegian scored both goals in the aforementioned weekend loss to Bundesliga rivals Bayern Munich and his record in the UCL is incredible, but despite going off on the hour mark with an ankle knock he is expected to be ready for Tuesday's match.
The 20-year-old tops the scoring charts in this season’s competition having hit the back of the net eight times from just five appearances and has been responsible for 53% of his sides goals – with a total record that now reads 18 goals in 13 UCL fixtures of which he has struck in 11.
Saturday’s double was the seventh time Haaland has scored at least two goals in the Bundesliga this campaign, added to a hat-trick and another brace for his country in four Nations League appearances – and incredibly when scoring his second in the first leg in Spain it was the third successive UCL game in which he had scored twice.
A record of 12 games scoring at least two goals from 32 total appearances is phenomenal and giving the game situation here I believe he will once again get chances – I think it is also clear he loves the big stage, the big games of which this is certainly one so therefore I am prepared to take odds of 7/2 with Betfair (23/5 Sporting Index) for another two goal plus show here.
My final selection sees another player bet but this time in the “to be carded” market and I have focused on one of the Rojiblancos.
Sevilla will look to get a foothold in this game early with the aim to at least be within touching distance throughout.
One of the main men in trying to stamp their mark on this second leg is Joan Jordan who prior to his substitute appearance in this weekend's 2-1 defeat at Elche had picked up three cautions from his last three outings.
A return of four yellows and one red card from 24 La Liga appearances is nothing too outrageous but with three cards in three games against Barcelona this season it makes you wonder if he becomes a little too excitable, a little too out of control in the bigger fixtures.
A curious stat of three yellow cards from six UCL appearances but all three picked up when coming off the bench adds more weight to that argument – and I feel this game fits that “eager to impress” criteria.
Odds of 10/3 with Bet 365 look worth a try to me, especially when you consider