CARD king Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) is back on the cards trail in La Liga on New Year’s Eve.
Villarreal v Valencia | New Year’s Eve 15.00 | Sky Sports 1
The curtain comes down on 2015 and what better way to celebrate than to watch Senor Confetti (Alfonso Izquierdo) back in action in a Valencian derby?
The problem is that this game, whilst a derby of sorts, has been priced on the same lines as the recent Seville derby. It is nowhere near as intense!
Put simply, it is the Senor Confetti effect. 7.5 is the general line and that looks too high given the past five meetings between these two teams read 7-5-5-6-8-8 on total cards. However, you are very brave to go under with this ref.
In his eight La Liga matches this season his card totals read 7-9-5-13-5-10-10-9. In those eight games he has dished out six reds.
One of those games was the Valencia derby between Levante and Villarreal. He sent off a Villarreal player as well as handing out 10 cards as Levante won 1-0.
In terms of this battle, William Hill are going Over 65 Bookings Points at 4/11 – a truly awful price. But it shows you that they expect plenty of cards in this fixture.
I'm expecting to end 2015 in style by backing Over 7.5 Cards at 1.85 on the Asian line with Bet365.
If you are feeling more aggressive then Stan James are offering 23/10 on Over 9.5 Cards.
Furthermore, BetBright are offering exactly 11 cards at 49/4 and 12+ at 19/2. If you bet both with equal stakes it would pay around 9/2 for 11 or more cards. Sounds a lot but anything can happen with Senor Confetti!
Villarreal v Valencia – Over 7.5 Cards on the Asian line (1.85 Bet365)
Villarreal v Valencia – Exactly 11 Cards (49/4 BetBright)
Villarreal v Valencia – 12 or more cards (19/2 BetBright)
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