BOOKINGS BOFF Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) delivers his verdict on the best cards-based bet for the first Euro 2016 quarter-final on Thursday.
Poland v Portugal | Thursday 20.00 | ITV
Through to their first European Championship quarter-final, Poland are targeting a first semi-final at a major tournament since 1982, but have their work cut out against Fernando Santos's resilient Portugal side.
Portugal have had marginally the better of the teams' 10 previous meetings (W4-D3-L3). The two most recent ended in draws: a 2-2 in Lisbon in Euro 2008 qualifying and a 0-0 in Warsaw in February 2012 – the first game, a friendly, at Warsaw's new National Stadium.
The nations' clubs have faced off 22 times in UEFA competitions, with the Portuguese teams recording 11 wins to the Polish sides' three.
German Dr Felix Brych is in charge of this one and he averages 2.50 cards-per-game in this year’s tournament. He is, of course, extremely experienced and will be in with a shout of covering the final if Germany do not make it.
Poland average 2.00 cards-per-game so far in the competition and Portugal a very surprising 0.75 cards-per-game. That implies 2.75 cards might be expected here.
I've looked through the past eight European Championship quarter finals and the total cards make-ups read as 3-2-3-2-5-3-4-3. That is an average of 3.125 cards per game – that’s an average of 3.125 cards-per-game.
With a referee averaging 2.50 cards-per-game, the teams averaging 2.75 cards-per-game and the recent historical average being 3.125 cards-per-game, it is hard to fancy many cards.
Under 4.5 Cards here is around 8/11 but I'm going to opt for a bigger price and so I’m backing 25-45 Bookings Points with William Hill at 13/8.
If you’re new to Bookings Points, a yellow card earns 10 points and a red card earns 25 points. If a player receives two yellow cards and is consequently shown a red card, he receives a total of 35 points.
Poland v Portugal – 25-45 Bookings Points (13/8 William Hill)