BOOKINGS BOFF Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) has spied a slice of value on the final day of the La Liga season on Sunday.
Malaga v Las Palmas | Sunday 11.00 | Sky Sports Interactive
The La Liga season draws to close on Sunday as ninth-placed Malaga host 10th-placed Las Palmas.
I've noticed an interesting pattern in end of season, meaningless Spanish games. Basically, there are much fewer cards given.
This was also evidenced on Friday night when the normally card happy Carlos Velasco Carballo only produced four yellows in the match between Valencia and Real Sociedad.
Last season, in eight games that had nothing resting on the outcome, the average card count was just 2.70 cards-per-game. In 2013/14, the average was 3.25 cards-per-game.
This is a quantum shift for a league notorious for cards. In fact, some bookies aren't even pricing cards up…
Ricardo De Burgos is the referee in this particular match. He is one of the more lenient officials averaging just 5.00 cards-per-game this term.
To be honest, if going under, he's an ideal appointment.
Furthermore, he gave one card in his season finale last year and three the campaign before.
An early kick-off in southern Spain also bodes well. I'm letting the historical stats guide this tip and I'm recommending Under 4.5 Cards at 7/10 with 888.
Malaga v Las Palmas – Under 4.5 Cards (7/10 888)