CARD KING Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) cleaned up in La Liga last weekend. Now he’s set his sights on Tuesday night’s Genoese derby in Serie A.
Genoa v Sampdoria | Tuesday 19.45 | BT Sport Europe
Forget Roma v Lazio and Milan v Inter, the Genoese derby between Genoa and Sampdoria is traditionally THE most ill disciplined fixture in the Italian calendar.
These two teams go into battle again tonight in what promises to be a highly charged, passionate affair.
Having said that this is historically the dirtiest match, the recent meetings haven't reflected that. Only two of their recent six contests would have gone over the general line of 7.5 cards.
The man with the whistle in this one is Paolo Valeri. This term he averages 7.00 cards-per-game in Serie A but he did take charge of this fixture two years ago and only gave five cards that day.
To me, whilst it might win, there is little value in going Over 7.5 Cards.
Instead, lets consider the individual team cards. Genoa average 2.94 cards-per-game and Sampdoria 3.53 cards-per-game. But of course, this a derby so we might expect more…
Genoa don't collect as many yellow cards as you might expect. However, they do pick up reds. So far this season, they’ve had six early baths – this compares to just three for Sampdoria.
When Valeri officiated this game two years ago, of the five cards dished out, four were to Genoa.
Most firms have Genoa as 4/7 shots to collect 4+ cards. However, the maverick odds compilers at William Hill are offering 6/5 on that outcome. Given that this has won on 4/6 previous head-to-heads, it looks well worth backing.
I think Sampdoria are the better team and most likely winners whilst the Genoa coach will probably be fired if they lose this local encounter. So with all the pressure seemingly on beleaguered 17th-placed Genoa, tuck into Over 3 Genoa Cards (need 4+ to win) at 6/5 with William Hill.
Genoa v Sampdoria – Over 3 Genoa Cards (6/5 William Hill)
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