Bayern Munich vs Lazio| Wednesday 17th March 2021, 20:00 | BT Sport
Bayern Munich take on Lazio in the second leg of their Champions League last-16 knockout tie, with the Bavarians holding a 4-1 lead from the first leg.
Lazio overturning the deficit would surely go down as one of the biggest shocks in European history, with Bayern 1/1000 to qualify.
Indeed, even Lazio’s sporting director Igli Tare admitted that their Friday night game against Crotone, which they narrowly won 3-2, “counts more than the [match]against Bayern.”
Bayern were missing the likes of Thomas Muller, Benjamin Pavard and Serge Gnabry in the first leg yet still completely outclassed the Italians, who have conceded 37 goals in 26 league games this season.
With Muller and Gnabry likely to join Leroy Sane and Robert Lewandowski in attack, it’s hard to envisage Bayern not helping themselves to at least a few goals again even if they may be in second gear for some of the game.
Lewandowski has only scored four times in this season’s competition, so he will be keen to add to his tally having joined Klaus Fischer in second place in the all-time Bundesliga goalscoring chart at the weekend.
Should Lewandowski start, I quite fancy him to score two or more goals to be honest. However, for those of you who have qualified for the Sky Bet Club, they are offering a boost on the Pole having two or more shots on target as an attractive even-money shot.
Given that the best price on Lewandowski scoring a brace is 17/10 (Betfair), potentially doubling your money for something which has landed in Lewandowsi’s last three European starts – as well as in 10 of his last 14 Bundesliga games – seems an offer too good to ignore.
As most teams do these days, Lazio did threaten in behind Bayern’s high line in the first leg, pulling one back through Joaquin Correa in the second half on their way to having 14 shots in total.
Bayern have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last nine home games in the Bundesliga, but have still managed to win six of their last seven.
Lazio, meanwhile, have failed to score just once in their last 15 away games in all competitions, so with Manuel Neuer likely to be rested for Alexander Nubel in goal and David Alaba potentially still out injured, backing goals has to be my other main play here.
Bayern to win and Both Teams To Score is 13/10 with bet365 (as someone who has been stung with this in the past, I’d always advise using bet365’s Bet Builder function for this bet due to their excellent early payout offer in the event a team goes two goals ahead), but I’m going to try and get a bit more bang for our buck by backing Bayern to win by two or more goals and BTTS at 13/5.
Lazio have lost by two goals in each of their last three away league games, with Bayern winning by two or more goals in each of their last three league games. This would have comfortably landed in the first leg, too, of course.