THE 3rd Round of the Australian Open gets going on Saturday morning and Mark Stinchombe’s (@MarkStinchcombe) lined up two bets to follow.
Joao Sousa v Andy Murray | Saturday 08.00 | Eurosport
Andy Murray takes on Joao Sousa in a repeat of last years 3rd Round match.
This is a pretty big mismatch with Murray winning all six career meetings and 15 of the 16 sets the two have contested.
Murray dominates the match-up with Sousa not possessing any weapons that can do anything to hurt the Scot. Five of their six meetings have taken place on hard courts with Sousa yet to take a set.
Murray 3-0 is best price 2/7 but we can obtain value in a similar way by backing Andy -9.5 games at 1.98 with Marathon.
Their meeting here last year finished 6-1, 6-1, 7-5 (12 games) and in 2013 they faced each other in Round 2 with a 6-2, 6-2, 6-4 result (10 games).
Add to this that Murray has already beaten big-serving Groth by 13 games and Zverev by 12 games here, shows what sort of form Andy is in.
Johanna Konta v Denisa Allertova | Saturday 00.00 | Eurosport
These two have met once before last year in the 1st Round of the French Open with Allertova coming through in three sets.
But since then Johanna Konta has gone from strength to strength. She has won 32 of her last 42 matches including 23 of her 27 hard court matches (85%), beating the likes of Halep, Azarenka, Venus Williams, Muguruza and Petkovic x2 – ridiculously impressive.
Konta has managed to eliminate the nerves that once dogged her game and is playing consistently impressive tennis. She opened up at 8/13 in places but has since been backed into a more realistic 4/9.
However, the bet that stands out for me is the Brit to cover the 3.5 game handicap at 1.97 with Marathon.
Konta‘s defeated Zheng by seven games and Venus Williams by six and with Allertova spraying 68 unforced errors in her two matches, I expect Jo to be too consistent for the Czech.
This bet would have won in 19 of her last 26 hard court matches since their meeting at the French (73%).
Joao Sousa v Andy Murray – Andy Murray -9.5 games (1.98 Marathon)
Johanna Konta v Denisa Allertova – Johanna Konta -3.5 games (1.97 Marathon)
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