Arsenal vs Manchester United | Saturday 30th January 2021, 17:30 | Sky Sports
The game of the weekend comes from The Emirates as Arsenal look to extend their strong recent run, however, it's away day kings Manchester United who they play host to on Saturday evening.
United have won 8/10 on the road in the league this season, the two they didn’t were respectable draws at Liverpool and Leicester. They’ve notched two or more goals in 8/10 showing they’re happier playing with the pressure slightly off.
It’s no surprise to see the Red Devils drifting after a shock home loss to bottom of the table Sheffield United midweek but I do think recency bias has been factored into these prices a bit too much.
Sure, Arsenal are in decent form but their fixture schedule has been quite kind to them. Wins over Brighton, Newcastle, Crystal Palace, West Brom and a defensively depleted Southampton aren’t anything to get too excited about. Mikel Arteta is likely to be without Pierre Emerick Aubameyang again here and although they’ve coped well without the Gabonese hotshot of late, it’s still far from ideal. Emile Smith-Rowe who has come in and impressed is also not 100% fit.
There’s pretty much nothing between the sides in terms of performance data but United have the more dangerous players fit and available and I’ll side with them on the scratch 0 start on the Asian Handicap at around 4/5 here. It’s effectively the same as Draw No Bet, we win if United win but have the insurance of our stakes back if it ends all square.
When I saw that Michael Oliver was the referee appointment for this one my eyes were instantly drawn towards the penalty markets. With the price on a spot kick to be awarded as short as 6/4 I’m going to chance a bigger price, one you can manufacture on Bet Victor’s BetBuilder market when utilising the method of goal tab.
We can get a massive 41/1 on both sides to score a penalty and that has to be worth a small wager. Oliver has pointed to the spot 13 times in 14 league games this season, as well as 3 of his 4 continental appointments. He’s also curiously given multiple penalties in 5/14 league games, if that were to happen again here there’s a decent chance it’s evenly split and then it comes down to the penalty takers to put them in the back of the net.
All things considered, I’d have this more like 20/1 so I’m astounded we can get as big as 41/1. Put it this way, this lands more than 1 in 41 games…