Arsenal vs Leeds Prediction & Betting Tips


ARSENAL take on Leeds on Super Sunday from the Premier League. Sam Ingram (@SamIngram_) shares his views from The Emirates.

Arsenal vs Leeds | Sunday 8th May 2022, 14:00 | Sky Sports

Two sides meet at the Emirates in what is a monumental fixture for either side's ambitions. A win for the Gunners puts them in the driving seat for fourth, moving them four points away from Spurs and just one behind Chelsea in third.

In recent weeks, Arsenal have rubbished the top-six hoodoo that has followed them all season. Up until their impressive 2-4 showing at Stamford Bridge, Arsenal had only mustered three points against the big boys – a North London derby victory on their own patch. 

In an eleven-day period, Arsenal proceeded to swat aside Chelsea and Manchester United whilst handing a league double blow over the Hammers for good measure. 

On the other hand, Leeds are only two points ahead of Everton in 18th, having played a game more. However, it's not all doom and gloom for Jesse Marsch's squad. Before Manchester City's 0-4 visit to Yorkshire last weekend, Leeds had overseen five unbeaten fixtures and eleven points.

The Whites' recent trio of away games claimed a victory in Wolverhampton before an unbeaten double in the capital. Marsch and the travelling Leeds contingent will be hoping that Crystal Palace/Watford joy will continue against the red faction of North London.

Yet, that will be a tough ask. Mikel Arteta has his team playing like a side worthy of Champions League qualification, and that doesn't look like slowing down today. The December head-to-head offers an idea of what may lay ahead at the Emirates, with the 1-4 score suggesting this Arsenal team has Leeds' number.

With 72 goals conceded and a 2.11 goals per game average, Leeds United have shipped the most strikes in the entire division this season. Away from home, only Southampton provides a loftier total. Not only do Leeds rank number one for goals shipped, but they also lead the way in yellow cards received.

Marsch's men sit on 93 yellows from 34 games, producing a 2.73 per90 average. The 93 is two shy of a Premier League record in terms of yellows received. In 2014/15, Sunderland racked up 95 yellows as they avoided relegation by three points. 

If Leeds can follow Sunderland's lead and avoid the drop, I'm sure they'll not be too bothered about the unwanted disciplinary record. 

Considering the two areas where Leeds outdo their top-flight opponents, averaging over two goals against and two yellows received, the 1.95 for both to rear its head is tempting. Nevertheless, we'll need Chris Kavanagh to play his part for the proposed selection to land – Arsenal 2+ Goals & Leeds 2+ Cards.

Whilst not the most frivolous with his cards, Kavanagh has a 3.73 cards per90 average from 15 Premier League games this term. Within that average total, 2.13 cards were shown to the away side.

Best Bets

Arsenal vs Leeds – Arsenal Over 1 Goal and Leeds Over 1 Card (19/20 Bet365)

About Author

Landing the luckiest 1096/1 Champions League four-fold in 2014 had me well and truly hooked in terms of football betting, thanks to a 91st minute Islam Slimani goal. Since that 4-2 Sporting Lisbon win, as data reared its head in football and became widely accessible to the average punter, a near-on obsession for stats and the underlying metrics somehow elevated a punt on the footy into more than just a hobby. Now betting in a full-time capacity, the goal is to fund following England home and away, and have enough in the kitty for a takeaway on a Saturday!

Leave A Reply