ARSENAL host Chelsea on Boxing Day in the Premier League. Tom Love (@TomLove_18) shares his betting thoughts.
Arsenal vs Chelsea | Saturday 26th December 2020, 17:30 | Sky Sports
Arsenal are a mess aren’t they? Mikel Arteta came out with a bizarre rant about Expected Goals (xG) and probabilities etc in his press conference before the midweek league cup game with Man City. The irony is, the Gunners have been a bottom half team on the major performance data metrics and they have a serious chance of finishing in and around the likes of Crystal Palace and Newcastle.
The 4-1 demolition job handed to them by Manchester City dented Arteta’s chance of a trophy and they’ve failed to win any of their last 7 league matches which shows just how out of form the Gunners are.
Usually if you see them above 3/1 in this fixture you’d be very tempted to back them but they’ve failed the eye test as well as the data test. They’re a mid table club and Chelsea away against a mid table club at evens would appeal.
The problem is Chelsea have also tailed off slightly of late. They weren’t great against a very poor West Ham side and the 3-0 scoreline flattered them, they’ll have to up intensity levels after looking fatigued of late. Frank Lampard has done a good job but he has to use his strong squad to maximum efficiency over this run.
They are rightful favourites here but a high scoring win looks unlikely given both defences have been decent enough on the stats. We can get 17/10 on an away win with fewer than 4 match goals and that makes appeal.
There’s no doubt Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang is a vital part of the Arsenal team. He could be back for this one and if he does recover in time it will be a major boost for the North Londoners.
Bet365 have him priced up at 5/6 to attempt Over 1.5 Shots which looks very generous for the frontman. PEA has hit 2+ shots in 8/13 games this season including 4 of his last 5. It looks a generous line with it much shorter elsewhere.
Best Bets
Arsenal vs Chelsea – Chelsea to win and Under 3.5 Goals (17/10 Betway)
Arsenal vs Chelsea – Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang Over 1.5 Shots (5/6 Bet365)
