TOM LOVE (@TomLove_18) unearths the best betting value as Manchester United travel to old rivals Arsenal for their FA Cup 4th Round contest on Friday night.
Arsenal v Manchester United | Friday 25th January 2019, 19:55 | BBC
Two old foes lock horns in North London under the lights on Friday night. The first things that spring to mind when looking at this fixture are Roy Keane vs Patrick Viera and those famous title battles in the 2000s.
It’s been a different story in the last few years though. Neither have come close to competing for league glory but both have won a fair amount of domestic cups since their hey day. With a European spot up for grabs for the winners of this competition it has to be a key priority for the pair given the fact two of the Big Six will miss out on Champions League qualification.
With midweek league games on the horizon we’re likely to see some shuffled line-ups. Stephan Lichtsteiner is set to come in as a replacement for the injured Hector Bellerin at right-back for the hosts. Mesut Ozil could come back into the reckoning, as could youngster Joe Willock after impressing in the previous round for the Gunners.
Ole Gunnar Solskjær could bring the likes of Romelu Lukaku and Juan Mata into the fold. Alexis Sanchez is likely to start on his return to the Emirates too. With Maroune Fellaini on the treatment table, Solskjær may keep Paul Pogba in the side.
The betting angles
Should Pogba start I’m interested to get involved in him in the shots market. Interestingly the world champion is averaging more than any other Premier League player when it comes to shots on goal. Sergio Aguero is the only player averaging more shots per-game (3.6) compared to Pogba (3.5), however the Frenchman is managing to get an impressive 1.9 of those on target ,whereas Aguero is only managing 1.2.
We can get 7/5 with Paddy Power on Pogba to have two or more shots on target and that looks a decent first port of call.
I’m also keen to get with goals here. There has been Over 2.5 Goals in 80% of Arsenal’s last 10 FA Cup matches, scoring at least two in 7 of their last 8. Their last three meetings with United have seen three goals or more with United scoring twice or more in all of those games. Furthermore, United have managed to notch 2+ goals in six of their last seven FA Cup matches.
Given those stats I’m expecting the net to bulge at both ends. We can back both teams to score and Over 2.5 Goals at a 20/23 with Boylesports and that makes major appeal.
It’s landed in 17 of Arsenal’s games in all competitions this season. It’s also copped in 20 of United’s games this season, both strong ratios. The meeting between the pair earlier this term also saw this bet land.
Arsenal v Manchester United – Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score (20/23 Boylesports)
Arsenal v Manchester United – Paul Pogba to have 2+ shots on-target (7/5 PaddyPower)