ARSENAL entertain Burnley in the early Premier League kick-off on Saturday. Matthew Kirby (@M_Kirby95) delivers his betting analysis.
Arsenal v Burnley | Saturday 17th August 2019, 12:30 | BT Sport
Arsenal and Burnley both made winning starts to their Premier League campaigns, but who will make it a perfect two from two at the Emirates?
The Gunners did what they had to do in a forgettable 1-0 win at Newcastle, while, on paper, Burnley brushed aside Southampton 3-0, however, the stats may paint a different picture.
The Clarets took their chances against the Saints with three of their four shots on-target finding the back of Angus Gunn’s net, but they were outshot 11-10 and enjoyed less possession. Expected Goals (xG) had Southampton edging the Turf Moor match-up 1.19 to 1.02, highlighting the fact that the scoreline didn’t necessarily paint the full picture.
Arsenal’s victory on Tyneside saw the Gunners come out on top of the xG battle 1.07 to 0.43 to contrast, so they did limit the Magpies’ opportunities to a premium.
The Gunners splashed the cash in the transfer window and broke their transfer record buying Nicolas Pepe. He made his debut off the bench at Newcastle and, if fully over an ankle injury, could start alongside last season’s top marksman Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.
Emery picked a young, fresh side in last weekend’s triumph with Reiss Nelson and Joe Willock starting, but they could drop out, while David Luiz and Kieran Tierney could also make their debuts.
One thing that caught my eye with Emery’s outfit last season was their slow starts; 17/38 (45%) matches were level at the break, with the Gunners going onto win in in 11/17 (65%) of those contests. As it occurred again last weekend, it’s angle worth exploring again here at 17/5 (Marathon).
Narrowing it down to just home fixtures will see seven games level at the break. Arsenal went on to win six of them – the exception being a draw against Liverpool.
Last Sunday at Newcastle, it was goalless at the break before Aubameyang got off the mark in the second half, and he’s got a great record against the Clarets having netted a double in their last three meetings.
There are options aplenty here. Whether it be the Half-Time/Full-Time market, backing Arsenal to win the second-half or supporting Auba to strike again – all plausible options.
Another Barnes rap?
Ashley Barnes proved how crucial he is to this Burnley team when netting twice against Southampton last weekend. That double took him to 34 Premier League goals, and he’s got three in seven against the Gunners.
The all-action centre forward isn’t afraid to put himself about. Last season, that resulted in him giving away 54 fouls (ranked seventh) and seeing eight cautions.
Two of last term’s yellows came against the Gunners – not only that but he scored both of the Clarets goals in those games. On its own, he’s 5/2 for a card.
Throw into the mix Wirral card-shark Mike Dean and then there’s an interesting angle with Barnes to net and be carded at 14/1 (Betfair). He did that in both meetings against Arsenal last season and one of those also saw Dean in the middle.
So, it’s two tempting plays at bigger prices this Saturday lunchtime.