Anytime Angles: Chaplin to have the last laugh on Friday night


THE boss Mark O'Haire (@MarkOHaire) has trawled through his big book of stats to unearth the best value Anytime Goalscorer from Friday's football.

Coventry v Peterborough | Friday 23rd November 2018, 19:45

Coventry have failed to score just twice in their past 12 League One outings and should fancy their prospects of notching against a Peterborough side that have defied the data in 2018/19.

Only Plymouth have faced more shots than Posh, who have also conceded the third-highest average number of attempts from inside the penalty area (10.55 per-game). The visitors are giving up 1.28 goals per-game, 0.88 xG per-game from open play and have recorded only three clean sheets in 18 outings.

Conor Chaplin joined Cov initially on-loan at the end of the August and, whilst the Sky Blues striker has scored just three goals for City, it’s not for the want of trying. The 21 year-old has taken the second-most shots in the Coventry squad (2.82 per-game), landing 41% on-target with an average 0.50 xG per-game.

Indeed, in 10 of his 12 appearances, Chaplin has taken at least two shots, whilst the former Pompey forward is also on penalty duty for the home side. Meanwhile, the hosts have fired in the fourth-most efforts from inside the penalty area and only five clubs boast a better xG from open play average (0.82).

Chaplin can be backed at 19/10 (Betway) to score at anytime.

Bayer Leverkusen v Stuttgart | Friday 23rd November 2018, 19:30 | BT Sport

Bayer Leverkusen have made a rotten start (W3-D2-L6) to the 2018/19 Bundesliga season leaving head coach Heiko Herrlich clinging on to his job. A poor Friday night result against struggling Stuttgart will likely see his position become untenable.

Die Werkself have been a shambles defensively, not helped by Herrlich’s constant tinkering of system and personnel. Nevertheless, one constant positive throughout the wretched campaign has been Kai Havertz's enterprising performances in an advanced midfield, or occasionally, attacking role.

The 19-year-old starlet has notched five goals for Leverkusen this season across the Bundesliga and Europa League, and the youngster isn’t afraid to try his luck. Havertz has fired in at least two efforts in 10 of his 14 fixtures this term, averaging 2.57 attempts per-game – 50% of which are on-target.

Admittedly, the majority of Havertz’s shots arrive from outside the penalty box but his 0.29 xG per-game average still suggests the available 5/2 (Sportingbet) is too big on the Bayer boy scoring at anytime.

Stuttgart have recorded three shutouts in 23 away outings since returning to Germany’s top-tier, have shipped two goals or more in seven of their 11 matches this season and are facing north of five shots on-target per-game. Opposition outfits are enjoying an alarmingly high 1.91 xG per-game against the guests and therefore Havertz looks overpriced at 5/2 (Sportingbet) to get on the scoresheet.

Best Bets

Coventry v Peterborough – Conor Chaplin to score at anytime (19/10 Betway)

Bayer Leverkusen v Stuttgart – Kai Havertz to score at anytime (5/2 Sportingbet)

About Author

The big cheese at WLB. After starting his career in newspaper journalism, Mark soon found his way into the online betting world, forging a career in content, social media and marketing production before setting WeLoveBetting up soon after the 2014 World Cup. With a huge passion for stats, analytics, the EFL and European football, Mark’s other interests include playing rugby, following his beloved QPR and travel.

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