WITH six winners from his past nine Football League tips, Mark O'Haire (@MarkOHaire) returns to share his three best bets from the weekend's action with the spotlight on League One and League Two.
Bristol City v Scunthorpe | 6th September 2014 (15.00) | Bristol City To Score Over 1.5 Goals (5/6 BoyleSports)
Bristol City are unbeaten in five in the league now after their come-from-behind and last minute win at Notts County last weekend and I’m going to back them to score Over 1.5 Goals at 5/6 with BoyleSports. The Robins ended 2013/14 scoring two or more goals in 7/11 home fixtures and it's a feat they've achieved in 3/5 League One games so far this season too.
Sam Baldock may have moved to Brighton but the firepower at Steve Cotterill’s disposal is quite frightening for this level – Jay Emmanuael Thomas, Aaron Wilbraham and now Kieran Agard also joining, not to mention the skills of Luke Freeman and craft of Wade Elliott too. Last season they netted in 20/23 games at Ashton Gate and I fully expect them to grab at least two.
Scunthorpe may have finished last season with 6/10 clean sheets but despite finishing runners-up, they still managed to leak two or more goals in eight away games. They’ve already conceded 11 in the league this season and boss Russ Wilcox is already complaining about fixture congestion following their eight game of August in midweek.
Dagenham & Redbridge v Northampton | 6th September 2014 (15.00) | Both Teams To Score (1/1 Coral)
I’ve always said, if you can find a Both Teams To Score bet on offer at evens or better, it’s worth a play. League Two had a tendency towards Unders last season but I’m more than happy backing Both Teams To Score at evens with Coral when Dagenham are involved. They host Northampton and yes, the Cobblers have only scored four and leaked four in their five games this season with only 2/5 seeing BTTS bank. Looking to the end of last season, only 6/14 Northampton games saw BTTS and none of their 5 games this term have seen Overs backers collect either.
So there are negatives. But I’d have the Cobblers down to score against Dagenham. They’ve netted in 4/5 so far this season and they only failed to score in three away games v bottom-half teams in 2013/14. The Daggers finished ninth but they’re a bottom-half side, if we’re being honest.
So what about Dagenham? They drew 3-3 at struggling Oxford last time out and they’ve scored in 4/5 of their league games too. And lets not forget that crazy 6-6 draw with Brentford in the League Cup. Rhys Murphy is still out but Jamie Cureaton has been scoring, Ashley Hemmings too and I’d fancy them to net at home.
There aren’t huge amount of trends in our favour here but the price and the nature of Dagenham under Wayne Burnett (more so than Chris Wilder’s Northampton) encourages me to go with my instinct and back Both Teams To Score.
Luton v Plymouth | 6th September 2014 (12.15) | Plymouth Double Chance (8/11 PaddyPower)
I said in our ante-post previews that I felt Luton were being vastly overrated and Plymouth looked a touch underrated. Nothing so far this season has changed those views which means I believe there’s a touch of value in opposing the Hatters and getting Argyle on side.
I toyed with having the 11/8 on Plymouth in the Draw No Bet market but instead I’m going short and having Plymouth double chance at 8/11. I make Argyle closer to 2/1 than 12/5 to win the game so there’s definite value to be had in these markets but I’m sure you all want winners rather than brave bigger priced losers so we’ll keep it short.
Luton have not won in the league since their opening day 1-0 victory at Carlisle. They blew a two-goal lead at Accrington and were well beaten 2-0 at Shrewsbury last time out, which isn’t as big a shock. They lost 1-0 at home to AFC Wimbledon and scraped a last-minute equalizer against Bury in their other home league games.
As for Plymouth, five of their 10 away defeats came before November last season as they were slow out of the blocks. And a slow start cost them at Bury in their last away game – 2-0 down early they recovered well and performed as you’d expect from a John Sheridan side – determined, resolute and wholehearted but missed out on a leveller. They’ve also got one of the leagues hottest properties in attack with Reuben Reid and I fancy them for a top-7 finish this season so have to get them onside this weekend.
Best Bets
Bristol City v Scunthorpe – Bristol City To Score Over 1.5 Goals (5/6 BoyleSports)
Dagenham & Redbridge v Northampton – Both Teams To Score (1/1 Coral)
Luton v Plymouth – Plymouth Double Chance (8/11 PaddyPower)
