VALUE-HUNTER Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) shares his thoughts on Tuesday night's Championship play-off semi-final second leg.
Nottingham Forest vs Sheffield United | Tuesday 17th May 2022, 19:45 | Sky Sports
Having gone to great lengths to suggest that the opening leg of this encounter would be a cagey affair, I had egg on my face when Nottingham Forest went to Bramall Lane and attacked with great intent from the first whistle.
While the shot stats suggested it was a tight encounter, with Forest winning the shot could just 17-15, there was no doubt they had the better quality chances, having five big chances to The Blades 0 and winning the xG battle 2.77-1.1.
Still, despite this, it is just a one goal lead they take with them back to The City Ground. Sheffield United will therefore feel that they are still in this tie and won’t need to be overly offensive from the off.
I did look at the cards market but find it hard to get value in these matches, where players – and bookies – know that there is little repercussion for a booking.
Therefore, I looked to find an angle to get with the home side. As they are odds against I wouldn’t put anyone off the 1X2 market but I actually prefer the 3/1 Bet365 are offering on them to win by a single goal. It will be bedlam at The City Ground and I fully expect them to go within one game of a return to the Premier League for the first time in 23 years.
Elsewhere, I also like the 8/11 with Bet365 on over 9.5 corners. There were 13 in the reverse fixture and if both sides operate a shoot on sight policy again I would be very surprised if this doesn’t come in.