DAN MCCULLOCH (@DanMc1984) shares his betting views on Thursday night’s World Cup qualifying clash between England and Slovenia.
England v Slovenia | Thursday 5th October 2017, 19:45 | ITV
Gareth Southgate’s England side go in to Thursday night’s game against Slovenia knowing that a win will guarantee their place at the World Cup next summer.
Despite being unbeaten in Group F it has been an uninspiring campaign for the Three Lions and few fans seem to have confidence that the results in Russia will be any more positive than those Roy Hodgson enjoyed at major championships.
England face a Slovenia side who still have an outside chance of qualification themselves and who really should have won the reverse fixture in Ljubljana. The much-maligned Joe Hart was in superb form that night, with a string of fine saves preventing an embarrassing defeat for his team.
The betting angles
The Slovenians have been less impressive away from home however, and that is why I like the look of an England win and Under 3.5 Goals at 37/40 with BetVictor. To date, their away record in this group consists of a 2-2 draw with Lithuania, a 1-0 victory against minnows Malta and two solitary goal defeats to Scotland and Slovakia.
England, for their part, have scored more than twice on just two occasions; a 4-0 victory in Malta when they scored three times in the last five minutes; and a 3-0 win against Scotland when every shot on-target found the back of the net.
Recent records suggest that this is simply a game England win but like many others I remain unconvinced by them under Southgate so find it hard to see a glut of goals at Wembley.
Their four home games to date would have obliged for this bet so I feel that BetVictor are offering good value. I would also recommend looking out for the best prices on 1-0 and 2-0 scorelines nearer kick-off.
Another bet I like the look of is over 40 points in the card market (red =25, yellow =10) – that is 17/10 with Paddy Power. The reverse fixture was pretty fiery with seven players booked whilst Slovenia also had five players cautioned against Scotland.
Srecko Katanec’s side are a physical outfit and given the importance of this game to both sides I expect an attritional affair.
England v Slovenia – England to win and Under 3.5 Goals (37/40 BetVictor)
England v Slovenia – Over 40 Bookings Points (17/10 Paddy Power)