Stats: Back a Friday night thriller in the Bundesliga

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STATS genius Stats Bet (@statsbet) takes an analytical look at Friday night’s live Bundesliga contest between Hamburg and RB Leipzig, pinpointing the value bet according to the trends.

Hamburg v RB Leipzig | Friday 8th September 2017, 19:30 | BT Sport

Using last season’s expected points, there is some great value to be found in the Friday night game at the Volksparkstadion as Hamburg entertain RB Leipzig with goals likely to be on the agenda.

Hamburg

HSV’s home fixtures saw plenty of goals last season with an average of 2.71 per-game, including 11/17 (65%) featuring Over 2.5 Goals.

When Hamburg hosted expected top-five Bundesliga sides at the Volksparkstadion there was an average of 3.20 goals per-game, including 3/5 (60%) producing at least three goals.

Expected bottom-five clubs in the German top-tier against expected top-five teams featured an average of 2.96 goals per-game, including 17/25 (68%) breaking the Over 2.5 Goals barrier.

RB Leipzig

Meanwhile, Red Bull fans were certainly entertained on the road with games averaging 3.18 goals per-game, including 11/17 (65%) seeing Over 2.5 Goals backers collect.

Ralph Hasenhuttl’s charges saw fixtures against expected bottom-five clubs produce an average of 3.60 goals per-game, including 4/5 (80%) land in the Over 2.5 Goals column.

With overwhelming stats in our favour, we have to back Over 2.5 Goals in Friday night’s fare at a generous 99/100 with Marathon.

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Hamburg v RB Leipzig – Over 2.5 Goals (99/100 Marathon)

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