CHAMPIONSHIP specialist Vince Blissett (@Vince_RFC) shares his verdict from Sunday’s Yorkshire Derby between Sheffield Wednesday and Leeds.
Sheffield Wednesday v Leeds | Sunday 1st October 2017, 12:15 | Sky Sports
Another Yorkshire derby for Sheffield Wednesday this weekend as they host Leeds on Sunday. The pressure is growing on Carlos Carvalhal after two loses in a week and you’d have to fear for him if they don’t pick up a result in this one with the international break on the horizon.
Wednesday have neither impressed nor unimpressed thus far, looking at the season as a whole. After two top-six finishes and a lot of money spent, a season of averageness won’t be good enough for a passionate fan base.
Will another fierce derby come at the right time? It’s hard to say.
Leeds out-performing their data
Away from Elland Road, Leeds aren’t quite the same beast, which may benefit Carvalhal. Leeds’ Expected Goals has been under 0.5 in three of their five road trips, averaging out at 0.84 xG over the five fixtures.
That’s a total of 4.22 xG yet they’ve managed eight goals, so something is going right. Add in the home games and it’s 18 goals from an expected 12.41 so Leeds are certainly over-performing going forward.
In terms of the league as a whole, Leeds rank 13th in xG for, have taken the 14th most shots, 13th most efforts on-target, 17th in SOT % but are joint first in goals scored. I don’t want to say they won’t keep up their clinical finishing because they might but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they dropped off slightly.
At the back they’ve faced the seventh fewest shots, third fewest SOT and SOT % and conceded the third fewest goals. Again those numbers could be maintained long-term but they may well drop off.
Tough upcoming fixture list for United
The reason I think they could well drop off is due to the fixture list. So far the Whites have only played two serious promotion contenders in Cardiff and Fulham, picking up one point along the way.
You could argue for Preston to be included in that too, which would make it two points taken from the trio. It’ll be interesting to see how Leeds fare in their run until Christmas when the fixtures toughen.
The betting angle
You can’t say anything good, bad or even in passing about Leeds without upsetting at least a few fans somewhere; unlike any other set of supporters in that regard. For that reason alone, it’s tempting to say I fancy Wednesday to win but I’d be lying.
The Owls look a bit of a mess at the moment. The defeat last week in the derby was well deserved which was followed up by another loss at Birmingham in midweek. I said similar last week but it’s hard to know what’s going on up there.
What is known is how many goals the Hillsborough crowd are seeing. They’ve seen nine scored and eight conceded, all five games seeing Both Teams To Score and the last three all featuring Over 2.5 Goals.
Nothing really stands out looking at the stats as to why that is. The closest I can see is that away teams at Hillsborough have so far hit the target with over 40% of their shots. It could simply be that the opposition have been clinical or it could be something deeper beyond my basic stats that are the reason.
Considering the amount of goals in Wednesday’s games, plus Leeds starting to concede goals – six in three – it’s surprising to see BTTS at 10/11. Over 2.5 looks very attractive at 23/20 too.
Predicting the outcome of the match is tricky so instead mix the two goals-based bets and take Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score at 6/4 (Coral).
Sheffield Wednesday v Leeds – Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score (6/4 Coral)