STATS genius Stats Bet (@statsbet) takes an analytical look at Sunday’s Bundesliga contest between RB Leipzig and Freiburg, pinpointing the value bet according to the trends.
RB Leipzig v Freiburg | Sunday 26th August 2017, 14:30 | BT Sport
Using last seasons expected points, there is some great value to be found in the Red Bull Arena as RB Leipzig entertain Freiburg on Sunday afternoon.
I fully expect the hosts to win convincingly. Why? Well the Red Bulls boasted a W12-D2-L3 record on home soil last season – that’s a 70% win rate.
The expected top-five home teams against the expected bottom-five away sides returned W18-D6-L1 results – a 72% win rate – with the home side covering the -1.5 Asian Handicap in 14/25 (56%) encounters.
RB Leipzig’s record against the expected bottom-five sides saw the Red Bulls W4-D0-L1, covering the same -1.5 handicap hurdle in 60% of their matches.
Freiburg’s away struggles
Christian Streich’s visitors have toiled on their travels in the Bundesliga, conceding the third-highest number of goals in the league, averaging 2.10 goals per-game and I don’t see that stopping here.
Freiburg managed W0-D2-L3 at expected top-five teams and failed to cover the +1.5 handicap in 60% of those fixtures, shipping 13 goals at a rate of 2.60 per-game.
Therefore, backing RB Leipzig -1.5 on the Asian Handicap line appears a solid selection at 11/10 (Paddy Power).
RB Leipzig v Freiburg – RB Leipzig -1.5 Asian Handicap (11/10 Paddy Power)